In the NHL it’s not how you finish, but how you start
Eric Duhatschek of the Globe & Mail has a good article on the clear lack of any relevance to how a team plays over the final 10 games of the season in projecting how they will do in the playoffs.
Via Kuklas Korner:
Statistically, there is virtually no correlation between a team’s record in the final 10 games of the regular season and its performance in the playoffs. Last year, for example, the hottest team in the NHL in the final month was the New Jersey Devils, a perfect 10-0. The Devils’ strong finish, plus the presence of Martin Brodeur in goal, made them a heavy favourite in some circles to emerge from the Eastern Conference playoff race.
New Jersey was awfully good in the opening round too, sweeping the Rangers in four games. Sadly for the Devils, that extended layoff between the first and second rounds took their edge away. In their first game back, riding a 14-game winning streak, they were blown out 6-0 by the Carolina Hurricanes, who then went on to win the series in five games.
Duhatschek compares that performance with an Edmonton Oilers squad that went 5-4-1 over the final ten games of the season and the Cup winning Canes team that went 5-3-2 down the stretch. So finishing the regular season with a flourish doesn’t mean a thing when it comes to the Stanley Cup playoffs.
That was certainly true for the Red Wings last season and has also proven to be true for San Jose over the past two playoffs. The important thing for Detroit is that the top line continue to develop as a scoring threat - Johan Franzen has worked out well in place of Holmstrom as the line has generated 3 goals and 5 assists over two games. So that lineup, which has been together for two full games, will probably continue to play together. If it ain’t broke don’t fix it.
Speaking of fixing things that are broken, it might be worthwhile for Mike Babcock to tweak the second line as it has cooled off over the past 6 games, generating only 2 points during that time span. If the top line is still as potent as it has been lately then I suspect Hank Zetterberg will return on that second line, which will hopefully get it on track. The third line scored two goals last night and Valtteri Filppula seems to be doing a good job centering the fourth line. So the second line has to be the focus amongst the forwards for the coaching staff right now.
Detroit will also need to figure out their defensive pairings if Kronwall is out for a significant amount of time. It sounds like Brett Lebda will be back in very short order and that is a good bit of news as Detroit needs every mobile D-man they have on their roster in order to effectively deal with the forecheck.
Duhatschek also reports that former Red Wings assistant coach Barry Smith has been contacted by a club in St. Petersburg (Russia, not Florida) and may coach in Russia next season. This follows up news that he has been named to the U.S. Hockey team as an assistant coach.
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