#8 Calgary Flames v. #1 Detroit Red Wings
Over the past couple days I’ve looked at some of the key statistics to try and get an idea on how this series will play out. Both teams have been excellent at home. Both teams boast top 10 offenses measured by “goals for” during the regular season.
Goals For - Regular Season
7. Calgary - 3.11
10. Detroit - 3.07
Here is how the goal totals look at home and on the road
Total goals at home
4. Detroit - 144 goals
7. Calgary - 142 goals
Total goals on road
10. Calgary - 113 goals
19. Detroit - 108 goals
Dion Phaneuf attempts to turn Todd Harvey into a Fathead
So on the surface this looks like a series where each game will likely favor the home team. Detroit has been the better team when playing against the Flames at even-strength, outscoring the Flames 2.25 goals per game to 1.5 goals per game in head-to-head competition. But Detroit doesn’t have any real advantage at home when it comes to special teams play, as both teams have a 16.7% success rate at JLA this season.
The visor is Jarome Iginla’s woobie
Calgary, on the other hand, has been dominant at home with the man advantage. Detroit performs as well in Calgary with the man advantage as they do in Detroit, and by “well” I of course mean “mind-numbingly poorly”. The Flames on the other hand have hit at a 50% ratio at the Pengrowth Saddledome against the Red Wings. So if the Wings take a penalty, odds are pretty good Calgary will capitalize by scoring a goal.
Franzen works on his Vulcan death grip
One other interesting dynamic is that the Flames have become more dangerous offensively and the Wings have become more physical and better defensively since their last meeting in the playoffs. Detroit ranks #2 in goals against average while the Flames rank #11. I looked at how both teams have done over the past month or so against top 10 offenses and Detroit’s defensive play looks good while Calgary’s tends to suffer.
This is an aspect Detroit didn’t have in the last matchup with Calgary
Each team will be missing a key player for at least the first game of the series. Todd Bertuzzi is suffering the after-effects of a concussion and has not been cleared to practice, much less play. Robyn Regehr also hasn’t practiced and looks doubtful for tomorrow night’s game. Regehr would be a bigger loss to Calgary than Bertuzzi would be to Detroit due to the simple fact Regehr has played heavy minutes for the Flames. Bertuzzi hasn’t played enough to really be missed, although Detroit eagerly awaits what he could bring to the table.
Kipper shouldn’t feel too lonely during the series
Calgary has talked about playing physical against Detroit. Given the Red Wings’ struggles with the man advantage I think Calgary can even push the envelope to the point where they can risk taking penalties. Detroit however does have better size to deal with physical play, so I don’t expect that to really throw Detroit off of its game like it did in the last two playoff matchups with Edmonton and Calgary. The Wings must be smart about responding to physical play, as Detroit will be in serious trouble if they take penalties, particularly on the road. The Red Wings in turn must continue to play the lockdown defense they have played all season.
I think the first two games will go a long way towards deciding this series. If Detroit takes both games they will be in excellent shape to win this series. If Calgary takes just one game they are going to make it very difficult for Detroit to come back and win this series.
Given the fact Calgary has struggled a bit of late against top 10 offenses (3.4 goals allowed and going 2-4 over the past month), that one of their top defensemen is dealing with an injury and is questionable, and also given how good Detroit is at home and how much the Flames have struggled on the road, I predict Detroit will win this series in 7 games.
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