Red Wave or Blood in the Water?
The upcoming matchup between the Detroit Red Wings and the San Jose Sharks has all the makings of a classic NHL playoff matchup. This is likely the first time the two teams have met in the playoffs where reasonable opinion would suggest the San Jose Sharks are the better team.
The Sharks were the beneficiary of a trade that wasn’t quite as one-sided as Vancouver’s trade to pry Roberto Luongo away from the Florida Panthers. But it was pretty damn close. San Jose was able to acquire Joe Thornton from Boston for essentially two one-year rentals in Wayne Primeau and Brad Stuart - who were traded by the Bs prior to the trade deadline to Calgary - and Marco Sturm, who recently renewed his contract with the Bruins. The Sharks acquired Thornton just as he was hitting his prime. He obviously won the Hart Trophy last season and put up 114 points this season, good for second in the NHL.
The Red Wings, meanwhile, have undergone a bit of a change in identity. Prior to the NHL lockout Detroit was a team that boasted the kind of top-end scoring line talent that the Sharks now feature. They were also routinely at the top of the NHL in power play success rate, which is true of this San Jose team: the Sharks ranked #2 in the regular season this year in power play conversion rate.
The Wings went into this season more committed to Mike Babcock’s style of play than they were during his first year in Detroit. With the departure of Steve Yzerman and Brendan Shanahan, Nicklas Lidstrom became the natural leader of the team. He was officially recognized as such when he was named team captain. As a result of those changes the team played excellent defense early on but struggled to score goals.
The Wings seemed to really hit their stride when Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk were reunited on the top line in early December. The Red Wings ended the year in the top 10 in both most goals for and fewest goals against. The Sharks did as well, so it should be a very competitive series.
Nashville seemed to try and take a page out of the Edmonton Oilers successful strategy against San Jose last year and tried to physically beat up the Sharks. That obviously didn’t work too well as the Preds were dispatched in five games. The Red Wings are not likely to take a similar approach. You would expect Detroit to forecheck the Sharks’ young defensemen and try to force turnovers. The Wings will be physical but they won’t go overboard and try to tear up Jonathan Cheechoo’s knee.
The big unknown is how successful San Jose’s power play will be against Detroit. In the two games at San Jose early in the season the Sharks converted 50% of their power play opportunities into goals. However San Jose’s power play was not effective against Nashville in Round One and Detroit’s penalty kill improved to the point where the PK unit did not give up a power play goal to Calgary over their final two games. The Wings finished the regular season with a top ten ranking in terms of penalty kill success rate.
So I think one of the big keys is going to be the Specialty Teams. If the Sharks force the Red Wings to take 6 or more penalties it is really going to cut out Detroit’s margin for error. Detroit averaged 11 penalties per game in San Jose but only 4.5 in Detroit when facing the Sharks. If the Wings can stick closer to that 4.5 number it is going to make it easier on their PK unit. If they give up 11 power play opportunities per game I just don’t see how they can win the series.
I generally like to look at recent activity to get an idea of how good a team is playing. Since both Detroit and San Jose boast top 10 rankings in both goals for and goals against, I decided to see how each team has done when they have played a team that also ranks in the top 10 in goals for and goals against. I looked at those matchups since March 1.
San Jose Sharks
Mar 2 - Anaheim: 3-1 loss
Apr 4 - Anaheim: 3-2 win
Apr 11 - Nashville: 5-4 win
April 13 - Nashville: 5-2 loss
April 16 - Nashville: 3-1 win
April 18 - Nashville: 3-2 win
April 20 - Nashville: 3-2 win
Record: 5-2
Goals for: 2.86
Goals against: 2.71
Detroit Red Wings
Mar 6 - Nashville: 4-3 win
Mar 13 - Nashville: 5-2 win
Mar 14 - Nashville: 4-2 win
Mar 26 - Anaheim: 1-0 win
Mar 29 - Nashville: 2-1 win
Record: 5-0
Goals for: 3.2
Goals against: 1.60
While Calgary’s defense wasn’t a top 10 unit, and they were missing Robyn Regehr for essentially the entire series, they were a top 10 offense that Detroit held to 1.67 goals per game and three even strength goals. So the Red Wings have been successful in holding top 10 offenses far below their regular season average for goals per game.
I think the combination of Detroit probably having an advantage with their defensemen along with the Red Wings’ ability to successfully forecheck San Jose’s defensemen will be the other two keys to this game. I have generally been a proponent of the idea that a great defense - combined with a solid offense - is a formidable combination. The Red Wings have scored 20 more even-strength goals during the regular season than San Jose and have allowed 25 fewer even-strength goals over that same time span. Unless San Jose can completely dominate with the Specialty Teams I think the Detroit Red Wings will win this series in 7 games.
NHL Playoffs Red Wings San Jose Sharks1 Comment(s)
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