Stanley Cup Finals Prediction
This year’s Stanely Cup Finals is a matchup between two teams that have not won the Stanley Cup since being admitted into the NHL. In the case of Ottawa the Senators won several professional hockey championships when they were rocking the Challenge Cup back in the days when they were known as the Silver Seven. They also became the first NHL champion following the 1926-27 season. But this is their first appearance in the Stanley Cup Finals since joining the league.
They were re-admitted into the NHL in 1992, the same year as the Tampa Bay Lightning. So if they are to pull out the series it would further highlight the stark contrast between expansion teams that have been successful - in this case Ottawa and the Tampa Bay Lightning - and those that have struggled either on the ice, financially - or both. Captain Daniel Alfredsson has been key to the success Ottawa has had during this playoff season. While he has struggled in previous playoff years he and linemate Dany Heatley have been the best forwards in the NHL this year, combining to score 16 goals and tally 22 assists.
The Ducks are another expansion team that has been very successful on the ice since they joined the league in 1993. They are making their second appearance in the Stanley Cup Finals. In 2003 they came within one win of claiming the Cup but ultimately lost to the New Jersey Devils. The key acquisitions that have made the Ducks likely favorites to win the Cup this year were Defensemen Scott Niedermayer and Chris Pronger. Playing in front of Jean Sebastien Giguere the tandem have made it difficult for opposing forwards to score while Niedermayer scored several big goals for Anaheim in the Western Conference Finals series against Detroit.
So this looks to be a classic matchup of offense versus defense. I’ve been making my guesses at the start of each round and have guessed wrong on two series. In the first round I picked Atlanta to defeat the New York Rangers which ended up being completely baseless as the Rangers swept the Thrashers. I got every pick right in the second round. Then I guessed wrong on the Western Confernce Finals when I thought the Red Wings would be able to overcome their depleted defense and pull out the series.
This series is tough to predict because the two conference rarely play one another during the regular season. This is due to the fact division rivals play one another 8 times per year. The schedule received much criticism this season but ultimately the league decided to continue its lopsided scheduling. When the two conference did meet in head to head competition the Western Conference held a decided edge. They went 82-48-20. So that’s a stat that factors into Anaheim’s favor.
Both goaltenders rank in the top 5 in goals against average, with Giguere being #3 in save percentage and Ray Emery being #1 in shutouts with 3 scoreless games to his credit. However given Giguere’s past success as a Conn Smythe winner and how he stood tall for the Ducks in the Western Conference Finals I have to give him the edge. If Ottawa is to win this series it is going to have to be because they have done a good job limiting the number of shots Emery faces and him playing at the top of his game. Getting Mike Comrie to dive to knock a net off its mooring every now and then like he did in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals probably wouldn’t hurt the Senators’ cause either.
As far as offense goes there is no question that the Senators boast the top line in the entire NHL. The Heatley, Alfredsson and Jason Spezza line has proved impossible to contain thus far, so Chris Pronger, Scott Niedermayer and Francois Beauchemin will certainly have their work cut out for them. Since the Ducks have home ice advantage the top Ottawa line will see plenty of Sammy Pahlsson which plays into Anaheim’s favor. And if they still can’t contain that line they can always have Pronger or Brad May try to knock one of them out of the series.
The big question on defense for the Sentaors is whether they will be able to contain the Ducks’ big forwards like Ryan Getzlaf, Travis Moen, Corey Perry and Dustin Penner. They were very effective in neutralizing a Buffalo offensive attack that boasted numerous scoring threats on several lines. The Ducks will present different challenges than a Sabres attack that features small but quick forwards like Danny Briere, Chris Drury and Derek Roy.
As far as special teams are concerned the Senators appear to have a clear advantage. They dominated Buffalo early on with their specialty teams and they have been the second best team in the playoffs when it comes to playing with the man advantage, scoring in one out of five chances (20%). The Ducks have struggled to play disciplined hockey and it has resulted in them being the most heavily penalized team in the playoffs, playing short-handed 96 times. Of course that is likely to be the case as they are one of only two teams still left playing hockey, but they have played short-handed nearly 20 more times than the Senators. This is one area where Ottawa has to dominate to win this series.
So how do I see the series playing out? I think that the Ducks will do a good job keeping the Senators’ top line from dominating. They’ll be dangerous, particularly at home, but the combination of Pronger, Scott Niedermayer, Beauchemin and Sammy Pahlsson - who is essentially another defensemen - will likely keep Daniel Alfredsson from claiming the Conn Smythe for series MVP. Conversely if he can somehow overcome everything the Ducks will throw at him he will obviously be the clear playoff MVP.
On offense I think the Ducks are going to be content to forecheck and grind it out by cycling the puck to wear out Ottawa’s defense. The Senators are obviously in excellent shape, having a long break after dispatching the Sabres on May 19. And as Brendan Shanhan pointed out during the season when he joked about doing the “Ottawa interview” where he pretended to ride a stationary bike following a game as the Senators are known to do, they are a very well-conditioned team. But getting pounded on and dealing with Anaheim’s size at forward is going to make it tough on them as the series progresses.
The only way I see Ottawa winning this series is if they can keep the shots on goal low and Ray Emery can outduel Jean Sebastien Giguere. I think they will also need to dominate on special teams, something they can definitely do given their success on the power play thus far and the fact that Anaheim is a team that has played undisciplined hockey often throughout the playoffs. I think the Anaheim Ducks will claim their first Stanley Cup championship by beating the Ottawa Senators in 6 games.
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