Michigan Football Prepares to kick off 128th season
The indelible image that kicks off the football season in Ann Arbor
The college football season kicks off in earnest tomorrow afternoon. Unfortunately you are unlikely to be able to actually watch the game unless you either go to the game, have Direct TV, or catch the game at a bar that has satellite television. The Big Ten Network is slated to broadcast the game, but the network’s scant availability makes Versus look like ESPN in comparison when it comes to the number of households that receive the two upstart sports networks.
I’m actually looking forward to the major cable companies and the Big Ten Network working out their pissing match and making the programming available. Hell, bring in an independent arbitrator and let that entity decide the key details to get a deal worked out if both sides are going to be this stubborn.
The Big Ten Network isn’t going to be a big deal this football season anyway as they are only going to carry a small percentage of all games and most are going to be of the Michigan-Appalachian State variety. You can expect the games against Notre Dame, Wisconsin and Ohio State to be broadcast on the major broadcast/sports networks. What I’m looking forward to is CCHA Hockey games being broadcast. I’d become much more of a Michigan Hockey fan if I could see more than 1-2 games per year. So if I can see anywhere from 10-12 Wolverine Ice Hockey games I’d be thrilled as those games aren’t carried anywhere else. I’d also like to see Red Wings draftees Justin Abdelkader - who plays for the Spartans, and Brendan Smith - who plays for Wisconsin.
What’s that coming over the hill - is it a monster?
So on to Michigan Football. Last year around this time I opined that the 2007 season would present the Wolverines with one of their best chances to play for the BCS Championship.
In 2007 the schedule and the makeup of the team could help Michigan compete for their first serious run at a national championship since the 1997 season.
I predicted 9-3 for last year’s team in the post I quoted above, so they actually played better than I thought they would. Iowa and Michigan State, however, didn’t quite live up to what I expected from each team. I ever so-slightly underrated Ohio State, although that loss to Florida in the BCS Championship game was definitive enough it could count as two losses, and I seriously underrated the Badgers, who had a fine season.
Every article on the Michigan Football team focuses on the offense, as they should. The team should have a top 20 offense in nearly every statistical category. As Brian at MGoBlog pointed out, the offense was extremely dangerous when Mario Manningham was in the lineup at receiver.
The “with” Manningham [in the lineup] number, a seven game stretch featuring three of the top twenty scoring defenses nationwide: 36.8 [points per game], which would have been good for fifth in the country last year. That’s a realistic goal.
In any game where Michigan has Chad Henne at quarterback, Mike Hart at running back, Jake Long at left tackle, and Mario Manningham at receiver the Wolverines will be a safe bet to put up 28 or more points. That has historically been enough points to win a football game.
Hart is the heart and soul of the Michigan Football team
Michigan will face defenses that will reduce their offensive production but that isn’t likely to happen until the last two weeks of the season, when the Wolverines face Wisconsin on November 10 and Ohio State on November 17. The Nittany Lions consistently produce very tough defensive units so they could contain Michigan’s offense, but for some reason Michigan has never struggled offensively against PSU. Here are the scores of the games since 2000.
2006: Michigan 17, Penn State 10 (Happy Valley)
2005: Michigan 27, Penn State 25 (Ann Arbor)
2002: Michigan 27, Penn State 24 (Ann Arbor)
2001: Michigan 20, Penn State 0 (Happy Valley)
2000: Michigan 33, Penn State 11 (Ann Arbor)
The past three matchups have been great games that were very closely contested. Penn State of course could win this year’s matchup but Michigan’s offense seems capable of putting up 28 points as they’ve averaged 29 over the last three games at Michigan Stadium. I also don’t think it’s unreasonable to suggest Michigan could have similar success against Notre Dame. Last year’s 47-21 drubbing was due largely to the Michigan defense forcing 5 turnovers. So on the one hand you might expect Notre Dame to play more conservative on offense to protect a quarterback who will have at most two back to back starts as Brady Quinn’s replacement. On the other hand if Michigan’s offense can have success against a defense that gave up nearly 24 points per game last season it’s going to put more pressure on the Notre Dame quarterback.
Crable crumples the Mighty Quinn
So I’m going to stick with my prediction from a year ago and say that the Wolverines are primed to have an excellent shot at playing in the BCS Championship game. The key game is likely to be that November 10 matchup against the Badgers. It will be a road game in the rabid confines of Camp Randall stadium and will be a night game to boot. If both teams can manage to come into the contest undefeated it will make it one of the biggest games of the season.
With that out of the way, here are the predictions.
Offensive MVP - Mike Hart
Defensive MVP - tie: Shawn Crable and Will Johnson
Special Teams MVP - Brandon Minor
1. Michigan (11-1): Schedule sets up almost perfectly except for night game @ Madison.
2. Wisconsin (10-2): Tough road games at PSU and OSU.
3. Penn State (10-2): Get Iowa, Wisconsin and OSU at home.
4. Ohio State (9-3): Last time they lost to UofM? In A2 when John Navarre was a senior.
5. Iowa (9-3): Sept 15-Oct 6 games include road trips against ISU, Wisconsin and PSU.
6. Northwestern (7-5): Nevada, OSU, UofM, PU and Iowa look to be toughest foes.
7. Purdue (6-6): @Toledo & hosting ND give the Boilermakers one of the tougher non-conference schedules.
8. Illinois (5-7): Western Illinois and Ball State are sure wins. Bad break with MSU rotating off schedule.
9. Michigan State (5-7): New quarterback, new coach, new attitude? Play every conference heavyweight.
10. Indiana (4-8): Hoepner had team on verge of bowl berth before his tragic death.
11. Minnesota (3-9): Should have scheduled game at Fla Atlantic at end of season.
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