Carr era likely over
When Lloyd Carr changed the terms of his contract last December it was widely acknowledged this would be his final season coaching the University of Michigan football team. Brian over at MGoBlog wrote last week that an announcement is expected to be made sometime this week.
With the flood of commentary on Carr’s retirement and no effort on anyone’s part to deny it, there’s every reason to expect the announcement in the near future. The intriguing thing to watch will be how the entire process of hiring a new coach unfolds.
Two people who have written on the likely successor are Jim Carty from the Ann Arbor News and Brian over at MGoBlog. The donnybrook got started when Carty wrote back in July that there are many reasons to think Les Miles would have a great shot at becoming the next coach.
Miles has the resume - having thrived at both Oklahoma State and LSU - plus he’s charismatic and is typically given rave reviews by former players, assistant coaches, and the people he’s worked for. You add those qualities to top-notch recruiting, a stint in the NFL and his Michigan ties (former player and assistant coach), and there’s a lot to like.
That said, there’s a lot that has to play out before we can predict how this search goes.
Is Lloyd Carr leaving in a position of strength - i.e. after a big season and a big bowl win - or just leaving? The answer to that question will determine how much influence Carr has on the search, and my guess is he’ll try hard to lobby for someone closer to the program than Miles.
Is Miles coming off a good season or a disappointing one? We’ve all seen coaches go from hot to not with just one or two bad losses.
The interesting thing Carty threw in is the relative position of each coach when the decision is made. Losing to Appalachian State, getting blown out by Oregon and putting on a completely uninspired effort against Ohio State - combined with several discipline issues - doesn’t exactly equate to Lloyd Carr being in a position to name his successor. Right now Les Miles is on track to lead the LSU Tigers to the BCS Championship game.
Brian, who apparently puts subscriptions to Michigan websites to very good use, responded to Jared Carty by saying Les Miles isn’t a candidate for anything.
Mike Debord does have a shot at the job despite his unpalatable resume. Too bad [Carty’s] talking about Les Miles, who does not and, even if he does, should not.
…
Lloyd Carr may not be in a position to designate his successor a la Bo, but if he says “over my dead body,” that guy is out. I have a better chance of being Michigan’s next head coach than Les Miles does.
I threw in that last piece based on some commentary that seems to be getting some traction and was expressed by Michael Rosenberg in this article.
Whatever Carr says Monday, one thing he will not say is this: “I hope Les Miles replaces me.” And he won’t say it to Martin or higher-ups, either.
People inside the program say there is a rift between Carr and Miles. Just because Miles played for Bo Schembechler does not mean he would have been Schembechler’s choice to run the program.
At this point, I think Carr realizes his successor is not going to come from within the program. But that doesn’t mean it has to be Les Miles.
And that is the crux of what will be the thing to follow once Lloyd Carr makes it official. The thinking is that if Carr waited until after Michigan’s bowl game to announce his decision it would smooth the transition process for hiring Miles. If he announces this week then Les Miles is going to have to deal with questions about the job all the way through LSU’s bowl game. There is plenty of precedent for coaches taking a new job and not coaching their previous team in their bowl game, but those tend to be Motor City level bowls, not the BCS Championship game.
Brian has since changed his stance and has championed Les Miles as the next coach. But he’s made it clear that the people who currently have some connection to the football program don’t want Miles to be the next coach and by extension it would seem that Carr isn’t thrilled with the idea. Was the criticism solely so someone currently on the staff could take over the head coaching duties? If that’s all it really amounts to then no one can seriously think that anyone on the current coaching staff has any chance at becoming the next head coach. If Bill Martin believes that is the sole reason for the negative whispers regarding Miles then he absolutely should pay them no mind. None.
Miles seems to be very interested in the opportunity and it’s impossible to argue for a more qualified candidate outside of outlandish pipe dreams of hiring Urban Meyer or Bill Belichik [yes, at least one national sports columnist suggested Michigan take a run at the Patriots’ head coach]. I thought there was a good chance Michigan could lure Miles away from LSU although the Tigers could probably outbid U of M by quite a bit, offering him Nick Saban money. So I felt that Brian Kelly would be the best hire if that scenario were to take place.
If Carr announces his retirement as quickly as has been suggested, it’s going to create a whirlwind of speculation and rumor-mongering. It will be interesting to sit back and watch things unfold.
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