Random Speculation on Michigan’s next coach
Michael Rosenberg jumps into the fray this morning by raising some questions about Les Miles. Brian at MGoBlog brought these concerns up this summer. Here are some pertinent comments from Rosenberg.
…it’s nice that [Miles] speaks glowingly about Bo Schembechler, but at the end of the day, so what? I know a hundred guys who speak glowingly of Schembechler. That doesn’t mean they should sit in the office overlooking the practice field.
…
For years, Miles has been telling people privately (and not so privately) that he wants to be Michigan’s coach. In the frenzy over Miles’ candidacy, this kind of nugget has been used to support his case. But think about it: Who tells so many people he wants a job that is filled?Is Miles really a disciplinarian in the Bo mold? When Miles left Oklahoma State, new coach Mike Gundy cut or suspended nine players before the start of the next season.
“In the past, you could get away with some things around here,” Cowboys safety Jamie Thompson told the San Antonio Express-News a few months after the coaching change. “That’s not the case now.”
Miles had the most talent in the country the past two years. His teams have achieved, but they have not overachieved. He has never put together the kind of season that made anybody say, “Wow, now THAT was a heck of a coaching job. That guy got absolutely everything out of his talent.”
The last part is interesting as many LSU fans who comment on Tiger message boards say they wouldn’t be crushed to see Miles leave if it comes down to that.
So Rosenberg supports hiring Jeff Tedford but I think that’s a non-starter. With Miles it has been known for quite a while he’d love to coach at Michigan. The exact opposite is true with Tedford. This year’s 3-5 Pac Ten conference record also has to make you question if Tedford is a truly great coach. Sure his offenses have been brilliant but his defenses have by and large been pedestrian. But I can see the allure of Tedford as he’s beaten USC, much like Miles beat Oklahoma while at Oklahoma State. I just don’t see it happening and said as much.
Back in late September I looked at both coaches and made the case for Brian Kelly to be the next head coach. Let’s take a quick look at where his Cincinnati team ranks in several key football metrics.
Scoring Defense: #12
The Bearcats allow 18.6 points per game. That’s better than LSU or Michigan.
Scoring Offense: #15
The Bearcats pile up 36.75 points per game, which is 3.4 points per game behind the Tigers, with a fraction of the talent. They also haven’t played several multiple overtime games. The Wolverines only averaged an anemic 26 points per game. Imagine what Kelly’s offense could do with talent like Jake Long, Mike Hart, Chad Henne, Mario Manningham and Adrian Arrington.
Mike DeBord took that collection of talent and finished in the basement in every meaningul offensive metric in Big Ten play.
Offensive Scoring: 9th
Total Offense: 10th
Red Zone offense: 10th
3rd down conversions: 9th
Time of Possession: 8th
Rushing Offense: 7th
Cincinnati only had the 66th toughest schedule based on strength of schedule, but they also don’t have the stockpile of talent that Michigan and LSU have. Even with that being the case they fielded a top 15 offense and defense, led the nation in interceptions and were 4th in turnover margin. They were 14th in sacks and - a stat that has to be near and dear to Lloyd Carr’s heart - were 5th in net punting.
Kelly’s 46 years old and he has an excellent track record that spans 16 years. He’s been the best at every level he’s coached at: Division II national champion, MAC Champion, and his first season at Cincinnati suggests he could turn the Bearcats into a Big East champ and BCS bowl contender. You don’t have coaches like this, who cut their proverbial coaching teeth in your back yard, come around very often - if ever.
Which brings me back to Rosenberg’s comments about Lloyd Carr’s involvement in the hiring process. No one who really knows is talking about the grudge between Carr and Miles. It has been rumored that Miles was the person who spread rumors about Carr’s health a couple years back when Carr was forced during a U of M basketball game to hold an impromptu press conference to deny he was going to retire.
If Carr has real concerns about Miles and he expresses those to Martin then Bill Martin is going to decide how to handle that. The flip side to that though is that I’m not sure what Carr’s thoughts are on Kelly. I highly doubt they had any run-ins on the recruiting trail as Carr was competing with Les Miles while recruiting some of the best talent in the country; Kelly was making plays for guys who were largely off the radar.
So Miles, as I’ve said all along, is a guy I undestand if he does in fact get the job. I’ve never really thought Tedford made much sense and I will be genuinely shocked if he is Michigan’s next coach. But the guy who I think could really get Michigan back to competing with OSU and consistently competing for BCS championships is Brian Kelly. He’s the quinessential home run hire, an Urban Meyer clone who’s spent the bulk of his coaching career in Michigan.
In case you need a reminder of how Urban Meyer did against Jim Tressel, here you go:
If Lloyd Carr is generally positive or at least neutral when it comes to Kelly then that could make him palatable to all the key players involved in the decision-making process.
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