It Could be Worse
The Red Wings could believe some lame-ass crap like the franchise is cursed. Yes, this is what Tom Kowalski is “reporting” this morning regarding the Detroit Lions:
Nobody remembers hearing anything about the Curse of Bobby Layne, but that doesn’t mean it didn’t exist.
Oh my, to be a serious Lions fan. Yeah the franchise is cursed but it’s real freaking straight-forward: they’re cursed by being owned by William Clay Ford - the worst owner in professional sports. I mean seriously, the Lions have gone from being a mediocre franchise to being a complete and utter embarassment ever since Matt Millen took over leadership of the team. And this is during a time when there is league-wide parity that levels the playing field! There’s your curse right there Killer. But of course he can’t write that now can he?
No, what ails the Red Wings right now is pretty straight forward: injuries. The salary cap has exposed a team that simply doesn’t have much depth. Every team in the league is looking for secondary scoring and every team would like to have another top 4 defenseman. With that being the case the team that claws its way to a Stanley Cup is going to win the battle of attrition.
Imagine if Anaheim lost Francois Beauchemin and Scott Niedermayer prior to the Western Conference Finals in last year’s playoffs and also imagine that Detroit entered the series with a healthy Niklas Kronwall and Mathieu Schneider. It’s easy to see the series play out in the Red Wings favor in that scenario.
The Ducks struggled earlier this season when they were missing Sammy Pahlsson, Scott Niedermayer and Teemu Selanne. Now that they are all back Anaheim closed out a recent road trip with 5 straight wins. I think the Wings will show a similar turnaround when Rafalski and Kronwall are added back to the lineup.
In the meantime it really doesn’t look like Brett Lebda and Andreas Lilja are making much of a case to be second pairing d-men. Here were the pairings Mike Babcock used last night:
Chelios-Lidstrom
Ledba-Lilja
Quincey-Meech
If the Wings stand pat at the trade deadline I expect they’ll ride their top 3 on defense of Lidstrom, Rafalski and Kronwall. Lebda, Quincey and Meech all look destined to be 6th d-man material at this point. Lilja will likely get the most minutes as the #4 d-man come playoff time. This is why I think a defenseman is Detroit’s biggest need at the trade deadline.
The rumors are getting hot and heavy that the Wings are going to trade for Sergei Fedorov. I’ve been pessimistic on the return of #91 for a long time now but it has nothing to do with the way he left Detroit or with the utterly retarded way some Red Wings fans boo him whenever he touches the puck at Joe Louis Arena.
I was skeptical about trading for Todd Bertuzzi last season and that skepticism has carried over this season for similar injury-riddled players who are shadows of their former selves. So I don’t see the point in signing Peter Forsberg [fortunately the feeling is mutual] or trading much of anything in the way of assets for a concussed Sergei Fedorov. I’m sorry, but I just don’t have a passion for the complete lunacy of making one-sided trades that further thin out Detroit’s depth.
Fedorov’s topline numbers this season: 8 goals, 19 assists, -4
5 on 5 Stats
12.27 TOI/60
2.13 goals for per 60 mins
2.23 goals against per 60 mins
-He’s Columbus’ best set-up man, averaging just over a primary assist per 60 minutes of play. By comparison Pavel Datsyuk averages 1.5 primary assists per game and no other Detroit player is over 1. But Fedorov ain’t bringing Rick Nash with him if he’s traded to Detroit so that number probably falls below 1 pretty quickly.
Power Play Stats
3.43 TOI/60
4.56 goals for per 60 mins
0.76 goals against per 60 mins
-The other power play unit is much more dangerous, scoring 6.03 goals per 60 minutes and allowing none for a +6 rating. With Feds on the ice the BJ power play is only +3.8 per 60 minutes.
Penalty Kill
0.85 TOI/60
0 goals for per 60 mins
4.61 goals against per 60 minutes
-Feds gets scraps on the PK. Michael Peca, Manny Malhotra and Jiri Notovny all play significant minutes on the PK. The BJs surrender fewer goals [-3.63 compared to -4.61] with Fedorov off the ice.
Granted, when I looked at Dallas Drake’s stats in St. Louis last season they were really bad too. He hasn’t been glarlingly bad on the fourth line and while playing on the PK. But he’s played much fewer PK minutes in Detroit [about 100 less at this point in the season] and he’s only been on the ice for five power play goals against. So by limiting his ice time the Wings have been able to get some production from him.
The difference is Fedorov is playing miniscule minutes on the penalty kill in Columbus and isn’t doing so hot. So how are you going to cut back his minutes in Detroit? His power play statistics pale in comparison to Mikael Samuelsson’s and Sammy is having a really bad season compared to what he’s done in Detroit when he’s been healthy. So Feds doesn’t look like a good option to replace Sammy on the point on the second power play unit.
Then compare his 5 on 5 numbers to Valtteri Filppula’s and guess what? Fil’s the better player. Check it out:
5 on 5 Stats
12.98 TOI/60
2.85 goals for per 60 mins
1.54 goals against per 60 mins
Detroit scores nearly 0.75 more goals per 60 minutes and allows just about 0.70 fewer goals per 60 with Filppula than Columbus does with Fedorov. That works out close to an extra 1.5 goals in Detroit’s favor per 60 minutes. There’s no way to justify using Fedorov as your third line center - let alone second line. And there’s nothing to suggest he’d be better on the point than Mikael Samuelsson, and hopefully Sammy’s stats improve even more when Nik Kronwall returns to the second power play unit.
And Fedorov’s calling card - defensive play - is no longer close to elite as he gets scraps on Columbus’ PK units. That really tells you something as the Blue Jackets have the #3 penalty kill in the league.
You can put away your flannel shirt, your DVD collection of Friends and your Pearl Jam CDs ’cause it ain’t the mid-90s any more. It’s time to move on.
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