Gorilla Crouch

I’ve mentioned the one shortcoming the Red Wings had during their Stanley Cup run more than a couple times. I am convinced if Detroit had Mathieu Schneider and Niklas Kronwall in the lineup they would have prevailed against the Ducks and would have had a great shot at knocking off Ottawa to win the Cup.

Of course this didn’t happen. Kronner went down late in the regular season in a game against St. Louis and never played again that season. Schneider suffered a broken wrist on what appeared to be a fairly mundane check during the San Jose series in the playoffs. Anaheim went on to defeat Detroit in six games and won the Cup. Kronner is about to return from his latest stint on the IR while Schneider quickly shook off the sting of losing to the Ducks and signed to play in Anaheim this season.

Losing Schneider and Danny Markov left the Wings a little thin on defense. This lack of depth was made even more evident with a rash of injuries over the past month: Brian Rafalski, Chris Chelios and Nicklas Lidstrom have joined Kronwall as recent scratches. The two Red Wings who were given a chance to prove themselves as top 4 defensemen were Brett Lebda and Andreas Lilja. Neither player acquitted themselves particularly well and demonstrated that at this point in their careers they are best suited to play on the third pairing.

So Ken Holland deserves credit for filling the one glaring need Detroit had heading into the playoffs: a 4th top-4 d-man. Andreas Lilja filled in quite admirably as a top 4 rearguard during the playoffs last season but this season has proven that he isn’t consistent enough to log the amount of minutes a top 4 d-man plays. He is a perfect fit as a third pairing d-man who can play on the PK. Lilja in fact is a very good PK’er and should suit up for most of the playoff games alongside Chris Chelios.

Brad Stuart should be able to fill two really big needs Detroit has right now: he is a legitimate top 4 d-man and he will be able to play on the point on the second power play unit. He was also one of the top d-men in terms of time on ice on Los Angeles’ PK unit.

I mentioned Stuart as a potential acquisition for Detroit back in the beginning of the month:

Stuart isn’t quite as polished as [Rob] Blake but he brings much of the same qualities as Blake would: he’s a very good all-around top 4 D-man. He doesn’t play the hard minutes on the PK that Blake does as it looks like he’s on the second pairing. The upside is he isn’t likely to be as pricey as Blake and at 30 he still has a lot of hockey left in him.

Given that Rob Blake said he didn’t want to waive his no-trade clause he clearly wasn’t an option. Stuart was likely the best d-man available given reports that Buffalo wanted Niklas Kronwall in return for Brian Campbell. The Wings only had to part with a 2nd round pick in this upcoming draft and a 4th rounder in the 2009 draft to acquire Stuart.

Here are his stats thus far while playing in Los Angeles.

Topline stats: 63 games played, 5 goals, 16 assists, -16

5 on 5 Play
14.7 TOI/60 mins
2.20 Goals for while on ice/60 mins
3.17 Goals against while on ice/60 mins

His numbers are very similar to Rob Blake’s and they’ve gotten similar ice time. So at even-strength there doesn’t appear to be much difference between the two players.

Power Play
3.05 TOI/60 mins
6.56 Goals for while on ice/60 mins
0.94 Goals against while on ice/60 mins

Again, these numbers are very similar to Rob Blake’s. Blake does get nearly a minute more ice time so Stuart holds up pretty well as far as the comparison goes. He’s on the ice for 0.37 more goals against per 60 minutes of play but I am not sure how relevant that stat really is given how rare short-handed goals are.

Penalty Kill
2.63 TOI/60 mins
1.09 Goals for while on ice/60 mins
7.96 Goals against while on ice/60 mins

Blake is LA’s top PK’er and Stuart gets about 40 seconds less in ice time per 60 mins. Blake is a little better in helping his team score short-handed goals, which again is a difficult stat to read into. Stuart allows roughly 1.6 fewer goals per 60 minutes but he’s likely spending a decent amount of time playing short-handed against the second power play unit.

Here is how I see Detroit’s defensive pairings looking once everyone gets healthy.

Even-Strength
Nicklas Lidstrom - Brian Rafalski
Niklas Kronwall - Brad Stuart
Chris Chelios-Andreas Lilja
Brett Lebda
Derek Meech

Power Play
Nicklas Lidstrom-Brian Rafalski
Niklas Kronwall - Brad Stuart

There were a lot of Wings fans who wanted Detroit to get involved in the Marian Hossa sweepstakes or at least pick up a scoring line winger. I definitely lobbied for the Wings to trade for Vaclav Prospal but I think a legit top-4 defenseman was a much larger need. Here’s why: prior to all the injuries Detroit led the NHL in most goals scored and fewest goals allowed. Therefore it’s reasonable to expect that once they get healthy [every player is expected to be back by the time the playoffs start] the team should be capable of scoring as well as any team in the NHL.

Here were Detroit’s top scorers during the playoffs last year:

Playoff Production

Player	Goals	Assists	Points
Nick Lidstrom	4	14	18
Pavel Datsyuk	8	8	16
Henrik Zetterberg	6	8	14
Dan Cleary	4	8	12
Mikael Samuelsson	3	8	11
Tomas Holmstrom	5	3	8
Robert Lang	2	6	8
Todd Bertuzzi	3	4	7
Chris Chelios	1	6	7
Johan Franzen	3	4	7
Mathieu Schneider	2	4	6
Valtteri Filppula	3	2	5

So right now Detroit needs to replace their 7th, 8th and 11th scorers. Brian Rafalski will likely be able to at least equal Schneider’s production. But Stuart and Kronwall [assuming Kronner stays healthy] will provide additional offense from the blueline that Detroit just didn’t have in last year’s playoff run. I’d be willing to bet that they are going to be capable of replacing the points Bert and Langer brought to the team.

Only Lidstrom, Datsyuk and Zetterberg were just about point a game players for Detroit. Schneider, Lang and Bertuzzi were each able to generate a point every two games. Kronwall has been a point every two game player this season as it looks like he’s finally started to put it all together and become the d-man Detroit expected him to become. So he could replace either Lang or Bert’s production.

It’s definitely a bit of a stretch to say Brad Stuart will be capable of producing a point every two games. His recent production suggests a point every three games is much more likely. But even if that’s the case he can chip in to help replace that lost production. If Valtteri Filppula, who is on pace to be a 20-goal scorer this year, also ramps up his playoff production then that could help as well. Johan Franzen and Jiri Hudler could also see their playoff production rise.

The point being that there’s little reason to think the Red Wings are going to have trouble replacing the “production” of Kyle Calder or the the production from Robert Lang or Todd Bertuzzi. The team has also morphed into a more physical and defensive-oriented team since Mike Babcock took over as coach.

Solid two-way players include: Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, Dan Cleary, Val Filppula, Johan Franzen, Kris Draper, Nicklas Lidstrom, and Niklas Kronwall. Gritty players include: Dan Cleary, Dallas Drake, Niklas Kronwall and Brad Stuart. The good thing is most of they guys can play, even in the playoffs. The only guys who are likely to be consistent scratches would be Darren McCarty and Aaron Downey.

Here is a lineup that could work pretty well for the Wings in the playoffs:

Samuelsson-Zetterberg-Homer
Filppula-Datsyuk-Hudler/Cleary
Cleary-Franzen-Kopecky
Drake-Draper-Maltby

Lidstrom-Rafalski
Kronwall-Stuart
Chelios-Lilja

If I had to guess I’d say the Wings will likely follow a similar approach when it comes to playing Jiri Hudler. I think he gets ice time in home games then either gets scratched or buried on the 3rd or 4th line when on the road. I just don’t expect Babcock to put him on a scoring line in a game where he doesn’t have last change.

The Red Wings didn’t make the big move to acquire Marian Hossa or Brian Campbell. But they were still able to fill their biggest need. If they are able to stay healthy they should have as good a shot as any team to win the Stanley Cup this summer.

Brad Stuart Brian Campbell Marian Hossa Red Wings

February 26th, 2008
Categories: Red Wings . Author: Dave

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