Time to separate the wheat from the chaff
The latest story on the Michigan football team is that offensive lineman Justin Boren has decided the new coaching regime isn’t exactly what he signed up for; as a result he’s quit the team. He’ll stay at the university through the current semester and then will likely transfer if he’s interested in pursuing a career as a professional football player.
As has been pointed out again and again and again, he is the most experienced offensive lineman who would have played this upcoming season. On the one hand it’s unfortunate to lose a guy as talented as Boren but on the other hand you only want guys on the team who are fully committed to the new coaching staff. Boren clearly wasn’t but there’s no reason to question his motives. He signed on to play football for Lloyd Carr and decided he didn’t want to play for the new coaching staff.
I’d take the long view and look at the 1969 team that recently visited Ann Arbor to talk to the current team about the things they dealt with when Bo Schembechler came onboard to revive the program. Of course the guys who left the team prior to that season were not there to give their side of the story; the guys who stayed formed a very strong bond to both the university and their new coach. History has shown that the new regime greatly improved the fortunes of one of college football’s dynasties, one that had fallen on hard times over the previous 20 or so years.
As far as what to expect next season I think Jim Tressel’s first year at OSU in 2001 should provide a pretty good blueprint. The Buckeyes lost two road games - one of them being on the west coast, two home games and their bowl game to finish 7-5. In Bo’s first year Michigan went 8-3 but I think that’s overly optimistic. 7-5 seems like a reasonable expectation given the schedule. The most likely losses in my opinion are the games at Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Illinois, at Penn State and at Ohio State.
My hope is the attrition happens fairly early on and the team struggles early. If my scenario above proves accurate Michigan would suffer a three game losing streak that would mean they’d be 2-3, and would be 3-4 before facing off against Michigan State. Ideally the team would begin to gel at that point and would have a decent shot at knocking off Ohio State in Columbus.
Make no mistake, there’s one and only one game on the schedule that would provide a huge boost for Michigan: knocking off the Buckeyes in Columbus. Lose to Notre Dame and it’s no big deal, particularly on the road. Lose to Joe Pa and you can still point to the past nine matchups of complete and utter domination. Lose to Sparty and you allow MSU to crow for one year - unfortunate but not much to sweat in the larger scheme of things. Michigan never loses to Illinois in Champaign-Urbana so if you are going to lose it’s likely to be in Ann Arbor.
But if Rodriguez can unleash his spread attack at anything close to full strength and beat Ohio State on their home field he’ll have made a huge statement that will reverberate loud and clear on the recruiting trail. That’s why I hope he pushes his players so that any guys with doubts will follow Boren out of the locker room post haste. The Wolverines will likely lose games early on as they make the difficult transition to the modern day verison of the option offense. Hopefully all that preparation culminates in a victory on November 22 in Columbus.
justin boren Michigan Football Ohio State3 Comments
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No way they lose to ND. I think they are much more likely to lose to MSU. ND is just awful. Maybe they win 5 or 6 games this year. Weis is no genius. He’s a dick.
[…] I’m not predicting a huge turnaround - I’ve stuck by my 7-5 prediction from back in March. The offense is going to struggle alot against good defenses that have solid defensive lines - that means Penn State, Ohio State and possibly Illinois and Wisconsin. But they could have some success against mediocre defenses. […]
[…] I never really expected Michigan to win this game. I suggested that back in March when I first took a look at the schedule: The most likely losses in my opinion are the games at Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Illinois, at Penn State and at Ohio State…If my scenario above proves accurate…that would mean they’d be 2-3, and would be 3-4 before facing off against Michigan State. […]