First Round NHL Playoff predictions
I prefer to do these round by round. I did pretty well last year, only guessing wrong on two series. With that out of the way here are my predictions for the first round.
Eastern Conference
Montreal Canadiens vs. Boston Bruins
Bob Gainey took a bit of a gamble when he traded Christobal Huet to Washington and annointed Carey Price as his #1 goalie. The young netminder though has lived up to the hype. Boston has a good chance to spring the upset due to their trapping defensive system and Tim Thomas being solid in net for the B’s.
Boston has allowed as many goals as the Habs, but Montreal has scored 50 more goals. The area where the Canadiens are likely to separate themselves from the Bruins are on special teams. Montreal has the #1 power play while Boston has the #28 PK.
Prediction: Montreal in 5 games.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Ottawa Senators
At the start of the season I picked Ottawa to beat Detroit for the Stanley Cup. My how times have changed. The Sens got off to a brilliant start but have seen the wheels fall off during the second half of the season as they barely squeaked into the postseason. There have been goaltender changes, coaching changes, trades [one trade that didn’t happen would have seen Ottawa and Chicago swap #1 and #2 goaltenders] but nothing much has worked.
The Pens suffered the loss of Sid Crosby for close to 30 games due to an ankle injury but their other top draft pick in Evgeni Malkin just went on to make a case to be league MVP. If not for his countryman Alexander Ovechkin just laying waste to goalies all across the Eastern Conference Malkin would have had a great case for winning the Hart.
This series looks like the Pens will win it going away and they probably will. But their goaltending and defense could have trouble containing Ottawa. If Daniel Alfredsson cannot go then this series has been signed, sealed and delivered to Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh, like Montreal has a dominant PP and the Sens, like Boston, has a mediocre PK.
Prediction: Penguins in five.
Washington Capitals vs. Philadelphia Flyers
One thing that is tough to overemphasize regarding the Caps is how much of a difference their new goaltender and coach have made. If not for both of them Washington probably doesn’t make the playoffs. Bruce Bodreau has made a case to be considered the coach of the year. Bodreau took over the reins in late November. The Caps were dead-last in the Eastern Conference for the first 20 games of the season. From there they rose to fourth over the next twenty games, third over the next twenty games, and finally second over the final 20 games of the season.
Philly was the exact opposite, starting off red hot like Ottawa before falling into the middle of the pack in the Eastern Conference. One thing playing in the Flyers’ favor is they have the #2 PP while Washington’s PK is pretty bad, ranking 25th in the NHL. Matt Cooke and Christobal Huet were both very good additions who will likely help to bolster Washinton’s PK. I think the fact Philly might be without Simone Gagne and Derrian Hatcher could tilt this series in Washington’s favor.
Prediction: Washington in seven.
New Jersey Devils vs. New York Rangers
The Rags have dominated this series, winning the first 7 matchups before the Devils won the final matchup today that determined home ice for the series. This series will be a classic case of offense against defense. The Blueshirts have the better forwards while the Devils have the better blueliners. You also have to give the edge in net to New Jersey although King Henrik Lundqvist has been every bit as good as Martin Brodeur this season.
Both teams have mediocre specialty teams play. I think even strength play will largely determine this series. Shockingly the Rangers have been better at even-strength.
Prediction: Rangers in seven.
Western Conference
Detroit Red Wings vs. Nashville Predators
As I pointed out earlier, this has been a very competitive series with the Wings holding a 19-17 21-19 advantage in goals scored this season. The Wings also won the season series 5-3. In past seasons when Dave Lewis was coaching the team this series had upset written all over it.
The Wings have dominated special teams play during the season series, scoring 22% of the time when Nashville have given them the man advantage. Detroit has only allowed Nashville to score 8.8% of the time when the Wings are short handed. With that being said Nashville has outscored Detroit during even-strength play and Dan Ellis has given Nashville a chance to hang in the games he’s played against Detroit.
This will likely be a physical, low-scoring series. If the Wings can continue to take advantage of the power play at anywhere near the same rate they have during the regular season they should be in good shape to advance.
Prediction: Wings in six.
San Jose Sharks vs. Calgary Flames
San Jose ran roughshod over the NHL during the final 20 or so games of the season. They’ll face a Flames team that has been in the middle of the pack for most of the NHL season. This is a series where you’d probably think the Sharks are all offense and the Flames are all grit and defense. If so you’d be wrong. The Sharks have allowed 34 fewer goals than Calgary, while the Flames have scored 7 more goals.
San Jose boasts the #3 PK so they will likely be able to shut down Calgary’s middle of the pack PP unit. Miikka Kiprusoff hasn’t looked as dominant as years past while Evgeni Nabokov has held the fort down reasonably well after Vesa Toskala was sent to Toronto. The big question is how the Sharks respond if the Flames really give them reason to doubt themselves. To that end I think the Flames play their typical brand of rough house hockey and see how the Sharks respond. My guess is the Sharks feast on the power play.
Prediction: Sharks in six.
Minnesota Wild vs. Colorado Avalanche
Colorado made some impressive acquisitions late in the season when they traded for Ruslan Salei and Adam Foote. As terrible as Foote was as a captain of the Columbus Blue Jackets he’s still a pretty solid defensive defenseman. Both blueliners have helped to shore up one of the Avs’ two glaring weaknesses [the other being goaltending]. Subtract Jose Theodore’s six shootout wins this season and he’s 21-21.
The Wild have better goaltending and dominate the key special teams categories. They also dominated the season series, winning 5 games to 2 before today’s [for Minnesota at least] meaningless game against Colorado. The Avs do have the firepower on offense to win this series but all of the key indicators lead me to believe the Wild will advance.
Prediction: Wild in seven.
Anaheim Ducks vs. Dallas Stars
The Ducks have struggled against the Stars, mustering fewer than two goals per game in their season series against Dallas. The Stars also boast the top-rated PK unit; they’ve allowed 18 fewer power play goals than the Ducks. Anaheim only has three twenty goal scorers although you can bet Teemu Selanne would have been the fourth if he played the full NHL season.
With that being said, the Stars will sorely miss Sergei Zubov. The Ducks have the decided edge on defense with Chris Pronger, Scott Niedermayer, and Mathieu Schneider. Goaltending is close as both Marty Turco and JS Giguere have earned reputations as the two of the top netminders in the business. The one thing dogging Turco is he’s never had a brilliant post-season run while Giguere has two to his credit.
While I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see the Stars win this series I think defense and goaltending are the key factors that lead the Ducks past the Stars.
Prediction: Ducks in seven.
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[…] Fellow Wings blogger, Dave, at Gorilla Crouch likes the Wings in six: This will likely be a physical, low-scoring series. If the Wings can continue to take advantage of the power play at anywhere near the same rate they have during the regular season they should be in good shape to advance. […]
[…] Here were my predictions for the first round. The series were very competitive which resulted in half of the playoff contests going 7 games. Eastern Conference Montreal Canadiens vs. Boston Bruins […]