Conference Finals Predictions
Alright, I’m batting .750 thus far. Let’s see how I do with the conference finals.
Eastern Conference
Pittsburgh Penguins v. Philadelphia Flyers
Pittsburgh is the favorite and they should be given the fact they finished the season in 2nd place in the entire Eastern Conference. Marc-Andre Fleury allows close to one fewer goal per game than Martin Biron and is tied with Dan Ellis for the highest save percentage in the playoffs. Biron, though, has faced an average of 33 shots per game while Fleury has averaged 28 shots against per game. The Flyers are probably going to have to outshoot the Pens by a handy margin to have any shot at winning this series.
The Flyers do have the firepower to accomplish this feat. They have 7 players who potted 20 or more goals this season, and RJ Umberger, who wasn’t a 20 goal scorer, is 2nd in the playoffs with 9 goals. In the one game they lost to Montreal they put up 33 shots and scored three goals before losing in overtime. The next game Carey Price started to struggle and the Habs likely played with less confidence at that point. The result was that Philly scored 17 goals on 98 shots for an impressive goal every 5.7 shots [put another way, the Habs netminders had a 0.827 save percentage over the final four games].
Both teams have power plays that are just about equally effective in the playoffs but the Pens have the much better PK unit. My sense is that the Flyers barely beat a Washington team that just snuck into the playoffs on the final day of the regular season. That series went 7 games, and the Caps had a chance to win the game in regulation before Joffrey Lupul scored the series-clinching goal in OT. They also beat a vulnerable Montreal team that was breaking in a young netminder in Carey Price. I think the Pens have none of those shortcomings and will simply present too much of an obstacle for Philadelphia to overcome.
My Pick: Pens in 7
Western Conference
Detroit Red Wings v. Dallas Stars
The Stars have been very impressive in the playoffs, going on the road in the first two rounds and sweeping the first two games from the defending Stanley Cup champs and the favorite to win the Cup this season. If they can go into Joe Louis Arena and once again win the first two games on the road they will have put themselves in prime position to play for the Stanley Cup.
Dallas has played excellent team defense and Marty Turco has been sensational in net, allowing 1.73 goals against in the playoffs while stopping 92.9% of the shots he’s faced. However the Stars have the lowest goals for average amongst the teams still playing hockey, scoring an average of 2.92 goals per game. Their most dangerous line in the series against San Jose was the Brendan Morrow - Mike Ribiero - Jere Lehtinen line, as Morrow tallied four goals while Lehtinen scored two. Combined they accounted for 40% of Dallas’ goals in that series.
However the Stars have been deadly on the power play, so the Wings have to stay out of the penalty box. Giving the Stars a man-advantage is just inviting them to score a goal. For Detroit the key is likely to try and play Dallas at even-strength as much as possible. This should be a reasonable goal as Detroit averages 4 times shorthanded per game.
The big question is how Detroit will do trying to contain Brendan Morrow. I think you can use San Jose as a measuring stick and then compare Brendan Morrow’s production compared to Jarome Iginla’s. When San Jose played Calgary in the first round Iggy scored 4 goals and had 5 assists. In the second round they did a better job on Morrow, giving up 4 goals as well but he only had one assist in the series. When Detroit played Calgary in the playoffs last year they held Iginla to 2 goals and 2 assists, so just about half of his production this year against the Sharks. If they can do the same with Morrow - limit him to 2 goals and no assists - they will be in good shape.
I suspect this will be a low-scoring series. Both Detroit and Dallas have two of the better defensive teams in the league. If Dallas is going to win this series it will likely be due to special teams play and Marty Turco exorcising his demons and playing well against a team he has struggled against. The first two games will likely tell us how this series will play out: if Dallas sweeps then the script seems pretty evident given their first two playoff series. But if Detroit can limit the number of times they play short-handed, contain Brendan Morrow, and continue to score at a decent clip they will be in great shape to make a return trip to the Stanley Cup Finals for the first time in six years.
My Pick: Detroit in 6
dallas stars NHL Playoffs Philadelphia Flyers Pittsburgh Penguins Red WingsNo Comments
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