Why acquire Ryan Miller if you already have Ryan Miller?
The rumors of Ryan Miller coming to Detroit to play for the Red Wings have circulated for a while now, and on the surface they make a certain amount of sense. Miller was a brilliant netminder for the Michigan State Spartans from 1999-2001 where he went 73-19 with a 1.54 GAA and exceptional 0.941 SV% en route to winning the Hobey Baker award in 2001 as the top player in the NCAA. If the Buffalo Sabres cannot sign him to a new contract before July 1, 2009 he will be a free agent and the team would receive no compensation if he were to sign with another franchise.
So it’s understandable how rumors of Miller coming to Detroit have cropped up, as you would think Miller would be interested in returning to his home state to play for a team that would put up plenty of talent in front of him and would give him a chance to compete for the Stanley Cup on a reasonably consistent basis. On the surface. In reality there are two issues that complicate this rumor.
The first was touched on by Pete over at Yzerman is God: the Red Wings cannot afford to sign him to a long-term contract. The cap is projected to be $3 million more than Pete estimated but the point still stands: who knows how league revenues will turn out for the 2008-09 season and what that will portend for the cap for the 2009-10 season? So fitting Miller’s likely salary demands into Detroit’s cap situation seems highly dubious at best. That’s a fancy way of saying it ain’t gonna happen.
The second point though is that the Wings need to find out if they already have Ryan Miller on their roster. What I mean by that is Red Wings Central has compared goaltending prospect Jimmy Howard to Ryan Miller. Here’s the quote:
Howard is tabbed as the Red Wings’ goalie of the future.
“He’s got tremendous upside, and as long as he continues to learn from the bumps in the road, he’s going to continue to develop into a guy the Red Wings can count on long into the future,” said [Grand Rapids Griffins’ general manager Bob] McNamara. “His upside is to be a No. 1 in the NHL, but it’s up to him to continue his work ethic and learn from his mistakes in terms of giving up a soft one here and there.”
The hope is that Howard will follow a similar development model to that of Buffalo Sabres starter and fellow NCAA grad Ryan Miller. Miller left Michigan State after his junior year and spent the better part of three seasons with the AHL’s Rochester Americans before breaking in full-time with the Sabres.
The comparison isn’t so much about their style of play, but instead their development cycle. Here are each goaltender’s AHL numbers for their three seasons in the A.
| Player | Team | Year | Games | GAA | SV% | Shut outs | Awards |
|
Ryan Miller |
Rochester | 2002 | 47 | 2.34 | .920 | 2 | - |
|
Jimmy Howard |
Grand Rapids | 2005 | 38 | 2.58 | .910 | 2 | AHL All-rookie team |
|
Ryan Miller |
Rochester | 2003 | 60 | 2.21 | .925 | 5 | - |
|
Jimmy Howard |
Grand Rapids | 2006 | 49 | 2.70 | .911 | 6 | - |
|
Ryan Miller |
Rochester | 2004 | 63 | 2.45 | .922 | 8 | AHL All-Star, Best Goaltender award |
|
Jimmy Howard |
Grand Rapids | 2007 | 54 | 2.83 | .907 | 2 | AHL All-Star |
|
Ryan Miller |
Rochester | TOTALS | 172 | 2.34 | .922 | 15 | AHL All-Star, Best Goaltender award |
|
Jimmy Howard |
Grand Rapids | TOTALS | 141 | 2.72 | .909 | 10 | AHL All-rookie team, AHL All-Star |
Miller cleary has the better stats, but Howard’s key metrics aren’t all that far off. Miller also quickly ascended to the #1 spot in Buffalo, while Howard would be Chris Osgood’s backup and would likely start 20-30 games next season.
The Grand Rapids Griffin can be sent back to the AHL affiliate without clearing waivers, but the Red Wings also need a second netminder now that Dominik Hasek has chosen to retire. Unless Detroit can acquire a proven NHL netminder either via trade or free agency, my guess is the Red Wings will start the season with Howard as the #2 and will see if he proves up to the challenge.
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