A meandering tour of the Mock Drafts
Mock drafts are being published at a rapid pace in the lead up to tonight’s NHL draft. Here is what some prognosticators think the Red Wings will do with the last pick in the first round of the draft.
Goaltenders
ESPN
Chet Pickard - Goaltender, 6′2″ 210 lbs
USA Today
Jake Allen - Goaltender, 6′2″ 175 lbs
NBC Sports
Haari Sateri - Goaltender, 6′1″ 198 lbs
Sports Illustrated
Thomas McCollum - Goaltender, 6′1″ 205 lbs
National Post
Thomas McCollum - Goaltender, 6′1″ 205 lbs
Faceoff
Thomas McCollum - Goaltender, 6′1″ 205 lbs
Forwards
NHL Draft Site
Jordan Eberle - Right Wing, 5′10″ 175 lbs
The Fourth Period
Jordan Eberle - Center, 5′10″ 175 lbs
Hockey.com
Maxime Suave - Center*, 5′11″ 178 lbs
Inside Hockey
Tyler Ennis - Center/Winger, 5′9″ 146 lbs
Pro Hockey News
Anton Gustafsson - Center, 6′2″ 194 lbs
The Hockey News
Corey Trivino - Center, 6′1″ 170 lbs
Mark Seidel from the Hockey News
Greg Nemisz - Center, 6′3″ 197 lbs
Defensemen
My NHL Draft
Jake Gardiner - Defenseman, 6′2″ 170 lbs
Draft Nation
Erik Karlsson - Defenseman, 5′11″ 165 lbs
The Sports Network
Vyacheslav Voinov - Defenseman, 6′0″ 190 lbs
Hockey’s Future
Aaron Ness - Defenseman, 5′10″ 160 lbs
* - was published 30 days ago and suggests he’d be a good fit for the Pens if they win the Cup. Since they didn’t who knows if they think he’d be a fit in Detroit?
Well that cleared things up
Goaltender Thomas McCollum leads with the way with three pundits predicting he will be Detroit’s first draft pick. But as you can see there is nothing approaching consensus on whom the Red Wings will draft. Let’s review some of the guys who are listed above.
Goaltenders
Thomas McCollum - Goaltender - Guelph (OHL)
Scouting report:
NHL Central Scouting’s Al Jensen
“Number one attribute is his net position, it’s second to none, there are rarely any holes and he has a great butterfly. When he is challenging and at the top of his game he is very tough to beat. He has good net coverage and he is very competitive; capable of making the big saves for his team. He handles the puck well and his play has gotten better over the course of the year by leaps and bounds. He is definitely one of those franchise type of goalies in the future. You can see that his team is very confident in front of him and he can see through screens very well. In saying all of this, I rarely see him out of position.”
Guelph Storm head coach and GM Dave Barr
“Tom is very tough mentally and very focused on being the best goalie he can be every minute he is on the ice.”
TSN’s report:
Comparable: Ed Belfour
From TSN: It was an up and down year for the Guelph Storm goalie, but the young American finished much stronger than he started and should be considered a solid bet to be taken in the first round. If not, it won’t be long into the second round before he’s chosen.
My take:
I wouldn’t say goaltender is a dire need as Jimmy Howard is likely to get his first extended action in the NHL and Daniel Larsson, coming off a season in the SEL that saw him claim Rookie of the Year and Goaltender of the Year honors, is coming to North America to likely be the #1 netminder in Grand Rapids. And the last time Detroit took a goalie with a first round pick? That would be 1973 when they drafted Terry Richardson.
I don’t expect the Red Wings to draft a goaltender with their top pick, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they do. They need at least one prospect in the pipeline with Howard and Larsson matriculating up the NHL ladder.
Jake Allen - Goaltender - St. John’s (QMJHL)
Profile:
· Led Team Canada to a gold medal at the 2008 Under-18 IIHF World Championship leading all goaltenders with a .948 save percentage, 1.43 goals-against average and two shutouts in seven games. Was named the best goaltender of the tournament and to the tournament All-Star team.
· Finished second among QMJHL rookie goaltenders with a .901 save-percentage in 2007-08 with St. John’s.
TSN report:
Comparable: Marty Turco
From TSN: The best puckhandling goalie available in the draft, Allen is a candidate to break into the first round.
My take:
Pretty much the same as McCollum. I do not expect the Wings to take a goalie with their top pick but there’s no way I’d complain if they end up drafting Allen. My only concern in looking at the stats is his GAA and SV% in the QMJHL wasn’t very good, so you have to wonder if his impressive performance in the under-18 IIHF World Championships was due to a very deep team playing in front of him. Heck, if that’s the case he might fit in perfectly in Detroit.
Chet Pickard - Goaltender - Tri-City (WHL)
Scouting report:
NHL Central Scouting’s Al Jensen
“Number one he is very confident. He is very strong in his crease and he isn’t predictable. His net coverage is very good and he reads the play well. I think he presents himself very well in the net and he has very good goalie instincts. He is very consistent which is a big positive for him. He is able to put any bad goals behind him; he doesn’t let anything bother him yet he is very competitive. The first time I saw Pickard, I saw Olaf Kolzig – I saw him big time in there.”
Tri-City head coach Don Nauchbaur
“Chet has done a really good job of being Chet Pickard … he’s a much calmer goalie than he was say, a year and a half ago. He doesn’t waste a lot of movement and he’s learned to use his size and I think he emulates a lot of what Carey (Price) did in net.”
TSN’s report:
Comparable: Olaf Kolzig
From TSN: Some call him a clone of Carey Price because the two used to be teammates in Tri-City. Unquestionably, there are similarities in terms of their size, style and calm under fire demeanor. Rated as a leading contender to be Canada’s No. 1 goalie at the upcoming World Juniors, Pickard is considered the clear No. 1 choice as this year’s top goaltender in the draft. Some scouts also think he resembles another former Tri-City goalie, Olaf Kolzig, who is now a part-owner of the team.
My Take:
I’ve said all I have to say about netminders, so let’s move along to forwards shall we?
Forwards
Anton Gustafsson - Center - Frolunda-Jr (Swe-Jr)
Scouting report:
Director of European Scouting Goran Stubb on Gustaffson
“Anton is a highly skilled player with strong puckhandling skills and playmaking ability. He is an effective passer through traffic who also has a good selection of shots. He’s a tall, strong and talented two-way center with good vision and a fine understanding of the game. He plays a mature game even when playing against opponents who were two or three years older.”
TSN’s Report:
Comparable: Jordan Staal
From TSN: If an NHL team is convinced the son of ex-NHLer Bengt Gustafsson is healthy, he could easily go much higher in the first round than No. 30. But the Swedish centre had significant lower back issues and his health status was a primary concern of NHL teams at the Central Scouting Combine. Those concerns could cause his stock to drop radically, but teams were doing a lot of homework on him to be sure. His X-rays and MRIs will tell as much about when he’s drafted as his on-ice performance.
My take:
He has all of the basic calling card features of a Red Wings draft pick: Swedish, solid two-way player, and has some sort of knock on him that could drop him down to the #30 spot in the draft. My guess is someone drafts Gustaffson before Detroit has to make the decision of whether his health issues are worth the risk. That’s too bad as it sounds like he’s a more offensively gifted version of Joakim Andersson, a Swedish forward the Red Wings drafted last year.
Jordan Eberle - Center - Regina (WHL)
Scouting report:
NHL Director of Central Scouting, E.J. McGuire
Strengths: “Jordan is a slippery scorer with great hands. He has NHL hands and the skating to get him into good shooting position. Jordan is an up-and-down the wing ‘tease’ in the sense that sometimes he’ll look like he’s just going up and down the wing and you have him slotted as a checker and then he’ll cut in off the wing and use that shot to put his team up by a goal.”
Areas to improve: “He needs to improve a little bit on his consistency, in that sometimes his up and down game gets too frequent and he has to learn that all his good skills can’t be hidden – he has to use them more often.”
Regina Pats head coach Curtis Hunt
“He has pure skill, is a gifted scorer, and will compete in tough areas to get it done.”
Regina Pats assistant coach Terry Perkins
“He’s our No. 1 sniper. He’s a very gifted puck handler and has great finish around the net. I think he’s got a lot better playing both ways. He was fortunate last year to have played with older guys and this season he’s become one of the older guys. He plays in all situations because he’s learning to play better defensively and he’s still getting the points.”
TSN’s report:
Comparable: Joe Mullen
From TSN: A somewhat under-sized centre, Eberle is considered one of the smartest offensive players in the draft. He is a better goal-scorer than a playmaker and is an elusive talent when he has the puck. There are some questions about his speed, but he does have quickness, especially in tight situations and one-on-ones.
My take:
The Red Wings likely have a pretty good handle on his game as he was a teammate of Red Wings prospect Logan Pyett. My only concern is he sounds fairly similar to Evan McGrath, who has struggled in Grand Rapids.
Tyler Ennis - Center/Winger - Medicine Hat (WHL)
Scouting report:
NHL Director of Central Scouting, E.J. McGuire
Strengths: “Tyler is a quick, ‘water-bug’-type player. He scoots up and down the ice and can turn on a dime. He can drive wide on a defenseman who is unaware or a little slow. Tyler may be one of the best pure offensive players in the entire draft.”
Outlook: “Getting bigger is not something within his control, he’s done everything as far as his quickness and offensive development and now I think that it is just ready for him to show it at the next level.”
Medicine Hat GM and head coach Willie Desjardins
“He’s so, so fast. I think he’s one of the toughest guys in the league to handle. He wants to score so bad on every shift and Tyler’s quickness down low in the corner is why he’s so hard to handle.”
TSN’s report:
Comparable Cliff Ronning
From TSN: It would surprise no one if the diminutive Medicine Hat Tiger forward somehow managed to sneak into the first round because is very quick and highly skilled but the lack of height, and weight, and a small frame suggest he’ll slip to the second.
My take:
Ennis would be a great addition as he’s a former teammate of Darren Helm and his speed and offensive skill would likely make him a fan favorite. And he’d likely kick all kinds of ass in the shootout. But he seems like the type of player Buffalo usually ends up drafting and he seems like a perfect fit for the Eastern Conference. He’s somewhat similar to current Red Wings prospect Jan Mursak, although Mursak’s got two inches and 20 pounds on Ennis.
Greg Nemisz - Center - Windsor (OHL)
Scouting report:
NHL Central Scouting’s Chris Edwards
Strengths: “Greg is a big player that goes to the net, he’s not overly physical but he doesn’t get knocked around either. He is good on the power-play, in the sense that he sets himself at the front of the net, he’s hard to move and he bangs in a lot of rebounds from there. He has a good shot, especially his one-timers. At his best, he is a power-forward type of a guy, a team guy, a two-way guy who plays on the top two lines in Windsor as well as the power-play and penalty kill.”
Areas to improve: “To get to the next level he needs to improve his skating, more specifically his mobility and agility.”
Windsor Spitfires head coach Bob Boughner
“Greg was an early round pick by the Spitfires who has blossomed into a big-time OHL player. He has excellent skills, is strong around the net, and possesses great hands and NHL power forward size.”
TSN’s report:
Comparable: John LeClair
From TSN: A big, diligent forward with an NHL-calibre shot who protects the puck well and understands the game. But he needs to pick up his skating, add a little more energy to his game. That could mean a fall into the second round, but then they were saying all the same things about Shawn Matthias a couple of years ago.
My take:
Ah, the Shawn Mattias replacement. That would be quite nice seeing as how Matthias has continued to blossom and is a high-end prospect for the Florida Panthers due to the Todd Bertuzzi trade. Nemisz sounds similar to Tomas Holmstrom and Johan Franzen as far as being a net-front presence. But given his size, his Canadian-ness and the tag “power forward” and he’ll likely be long gone by the time the #30 pick is being announced.
Defensemen
Erik Karlsson - Defenseman - Frolunda Jr (Swe-Jr)
Scouting report:
Director of European Scouting Goran Stubb
“Erik is excellent on the power-play; he makes smart passes and has great vision. He plays the game with confidence, has a natural hockey sense and is a consistent offensive threat. He compensates for his lack of strength and size with his mobility, passing and vision and is at his best as an offensive d-man. Overall, he needs more weight and strength in order to be more effective in front of his own net.”
TSN’s report:
Comparable: Kimmo Timonen
From TSN: Some teams think this Swedish defenceman with great mobility and puck skills is a late-emerging sleeper pick who could be had late in the first round or early second. Good luck. The secret is out – the Detroit Red Wings won the Stanley Cup on the strength of mobile puck movers who can contribute at both ends of the ice and that describes Karlsson. Don’t be surprised if someone jumps in on Karlsson even earlier than 20.
My take:
I agree with TSN on this one. I don’t think there’s any way Karlsson is available when Detroit picks at #30. He certainly fits Detroit’s style of play and if he’s there Ken Holland would no doubt be beaming at his good fortune. I highly doubt that will be the case though.
Jake Gardiner - Defenseman - Minnetonka (MN-HS)
Scouting report:
NHL Central Scouting’s Jack Barzee
“Jake’s biggest attribute is that he might be one of the best skaters in the draft – he is just a pure skater. He used to be a forward and they made him a defensemen a few years ago and he loves being a defenseman. He is smart with the puck, unselfish and he’s careful. He is another one that has grown all year, I had him measured at 6′0″ – he might be almost 6′2″ and that’s been not even a year. He’s a greyhound right now, wiry, but he’ll fill out. He is dynamic when he grabs the puck and goes. He has a very quick dangerous wrist shot – he gets it away like Joe Sakic does. The dimension of his quickness fools goalies. I liken him to Brett Hedican when he was in high school but maybe a little more polished. He’s an easy player to like.”
Minnetonka head coach Brian Urick
“Making the switch from playing forward to defenseman really helped Jake improve as a player. He makes a better defenseman because of his experience playing as a forward. Jake has an uncanny ability to read plays and this helps him see the ice in a different way.”
TSN’s report:
Comparable: Trevor Daley
From TSN: The Minnesotan is considered one of the fastest skaters in the draft and that’s a quality the scouts look for in today’s game. One team, for example, has him rated in their top 10 prospects, so the chances of being selected much higher than 21 definitely exist. But persistent questions about the extent of his hockey sense – one scout said his brain doesn’t work quite as fast as his feet – also suggest he could tumble to the lower part of the first round.
My take:
The Red Wings are big on hockey sense and hockey IQ, so I’m not sure Gardiner is a good fit with the top pick, and that’s putting aside there’s a good shot he’ll be drafted within the first 20 picks. His speed is sure to be a big selling point to the team that drafts him. Another factor in his favor is he’ll play college hockey for Wisconsin, so that will give the team that drafts him more time to sign him and also allow the former forward more time to adapt to playing defense.
Vyacheslav Voinov - Defenseman - Chelyabinsk (Russia)
Scouting report:
“Vjateslav is a talented and skilled defenseman who needs some time to develop. He is strong in the defensive zone and is able to make good decisions with the puck. He needs to get stronger and to improve on his first-step quickness.”
TSN’s report:
Comparable: Danny Markov
From TSN: The Russian defenceman is one of the chief agitators in the draft, an in your face type of guy who doesn’t back off an inch. When most of his Russian teammates threw in the towel against Canada in the Summit Series last fall, Voinov played every shift of every game as if it mattered. The Russian factor will come into play on how high he goes, but it wouldn’t be outlandish if a team toyed with the idea of taking him late in the first round. Chances are, though, that he’ll go in the second.
My take:
Voinov would be a fit, but I just don’t see the Wings taking him with the #30 pick. He’s a defensive defenseman through and through and while Detroit usually drafts defensemen in the first round [their last 8 first round picks have been defensemen] I have a hard time seeing Voinov as being their first round pick.
With all of that being covered, I have to say I don’t feel confident Detroit will draft any of the players listed above. That’s the thing about the NHL draft: unless you are talking about the top 5 picks it’s all a matter of which player your scouts and organization like best when it’s your time to choose from all of the players left on the board.
I’ll find whatever I can on the guys the Red Wings actually do draft and post that information this weekend.
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[…] My quick tour of the mock drafts suggested the Red Wings were likely to draft Thomas McCollum with the #30 draft pick. Well three of the mock draft prognosticators, who were mocked by a baker’s couple of excellent bloggers, ended up making the correct call. Let’s give them their moment to bask in the sun shall we? […]