Gorilla Crouch

With news today that the Red Wings were able to avoid arbitration and sign Valtteri Filppula to a 5-year contract extension, the next likely step for general manager Ken Holland is to trim some salary to get the roster finalized before the team heads off for training camp.

When I first took a look at the offseason planning I had Filppula’s new contract at the top of the to-do list. My guess on his cap hit [$2.75mm] was pretty close and I think this is a deal that will be considered a very good value as early as next season. I’d be shocked if he doesn’t pot 20 goals and think he could finish with anywhere from 25-30 goals. If he can pot at least 25 goals then he’ll be well worth the contract. Here is a list of players in his immediate age range who scored 25 or more goals last season and were not playing on an entry-level contract.

Young Guns

Player	Age	Goals	Points	Cap Hit	Years Remaining
Brad Boyes	26	43	65	$4mm	4
Patrick Sharp	26	36	62	$3.9mm	4
Dustin Brown	23	33	60	$3.175mm	5
Derek Roy	25	32	81	$4mm	5
Corey Perry	23	29	54	$5.325mm	5
Mike Richards	23	28	75	$5.75mm	5
Nathan Horton	23	27	62	$4mm	5
Marek Svatos	26	26	37	$2.05mm	2

If Filppula can score at the same clip as the guys on the lower half of this chart then his $3 million annual cap hit begins to look very reasonable. His signing though puts the Red Wings very close to the salary cap limit. How close? Let’s start off by looking at all of the players currently under contract who have at least a good shot at making the team out of training camp.

All salary figures are from Let’s Go Wings.

As you can see, the Red Wings need to send some players down to Grand Rapids or work some trades or waive somebody. They’re close to $1.25 million above the $56.7 million salary cap. Let’s take the path of least resistance and send guys who won’t have to clear waivers down to Grand Rapids. That means Jimmy Howard, Darren Helm and Jonathan Ericsson can all be trimmed from the roster and have their salary amounts removed from the cap figure.



Sending these three players down to the minors does the trick as it puts the Red Wings a little under $1 million beneath the salary cap. However that’s not enough money to sign both Chris Chelios and Kyle Quincey, who is a restricted free agent and is out of waiver exempt trips back to Grand Rapids.

The easiest way to get this resolved is to choose between keeping Cheli or Quincey and use the remainder of the cap space for call ups when injuries occur. Cheli’s past salary amount [$850,000] would eat up the majority of that $1 million in cap space. The Red Wings qualified Quincey at a 5% increase in pay. He made $535,000 last season so if he accepts the qualifying offer his salary would be right around $562,000. That would leave Detroit with a little over $400,000 for calling players up from Grand Rapids when necessary. Losing Cheli would obviously suck but this might be what it takes to get the team ready for training camp. This would be my guess on what Detroit actually does.

But let’s take a look at another option. Two of those young players we reflexively sent back to Grand Rapids might be worthy of playing in Detroit this season. Darren Helm centered the fourth line during the playoffs and did quite well in that role. And Mike Babcock has made it very clear that he’s a big fan of Jonathan Ericsson, saying that he “couldn’t believe” the team wasn’t playing him in the playoffs.

So what happens if both of these guys impress during training camp and earn a spot with the big club? Well then Ken Holland has to start considering trade options or possibly waiving a player or two. Obviously Holland would prefer the former, and he brought up that option when talking about Filppula’s new deal:

“We’ll have to make a decision based on the 23-man roster, the salary cap and age,'’ Holland said. “We’ll have to be prepared to trade some players. I would expect there would be interest in some of our players.'’

So if Darren Helm and Jonathan Ericsson make the squad out of training camp it will likely force Detroit to trade or waive players who have similar cap hits.

With that being said, who is most likely to be involved in trade talk? The player who comes immediately to mind is Andreas Lilja. Ken Holland even suggested as much when announcing the team signed the big d-man to a new contract eariler this summer. If Holland can trade Lilja for a draft pick then his salary would cover all but $250,000 of Helm and Ericsson’s cap figures for this season. If Detroit can trade Lilja and keep Helm and Ericsson, that would only give them a little under $170,000 in cap space. Here’s how the math works.

That’s too close to the cap so Detroit would likely have to make one more move so that they have a decent amount of cap space. Which player is most likely to be moved? At this point it becomes more difficult to figure out. My guess is that the decision needs to be made between Kirk Maltby and Brett Lebda. Both players are solid role players but they are vulnerable as far as potenially being the odd man out at training camp.

If I had to guess I’d say that Maltby might be the guy who doesn’t make the roster. I form this opinion based on three main reasons: Maltby has been a minus player since the lockout and his play has dropped off; Darren McCarty can fill his spot on a two-way contract that would lessen the cap impact; and his $883,000 salary would give Detroit roughly $1 million in cap space. It would also facilitate bringing Ville Leino up at some point during the season as his cap number is just below Maltby’s. Here is how the cap number looks if Maltby’s salary is removed.

Detroit only has 12 forwards but the team has some flexibility. With a little over $1 million in cap space the team can call up Darren McCarty or Ville Leino and they can even have Derek Meech fill in as a forward in a pinch. The only issue with this scenario is trading Kirk Maltby, as I don’t think he has much trade value. If that’s the case he might get waived if he doesn’t win a spot during training camp. I don’t enjoy the prospect of cutting loose players like Chris Chelios or Kirk Maltby or even Andreas Lilja, who is a good PK’er and can be physical. But the salary cap forces you to look at each player’s production and potential.

Based on what I’ve outlined here, this is my guess on the lineups:

Forwards

Top 6: Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Datsyuk, Marian Hossa, Johan Franzen, Valtteri Filppula, Tomas Holmstrom.
Checking line: Mikael Samuelsson, Kris Draper, Dan Cleary
Fourth line: Jiri Hudler, Darren Helm, Tomas Kopecky

Defense

Nicklas Lidstrom, Brian Rafalski
Niklas Kronwall, Brad Stuart
Brett Lebda, Jonathan Ericsson
[Derek Meech, Kyle Quincey]

Goaltender
Chris Osgood
Ty Conklin

The only reason I’d hesitate to trade Andreas Lilja and instead trade Brett Lebda is that Lilja has played big minutes on the PK. If you lose Chris Chelios and Lilja then you lose two of your top five PK’ers on defense and you might force Nick Lidstrom to play heavier PK minutes. That just isn’t a good idea.

Stats from Behind the Net

PK TOI/60 mins:
Lidstrom - 3.31
Chelios - 2.91
Stuart - 2.83
Kronwall - 2.40
Lilja - 2.15
Rafalski - 1.54

Brad Stuart can likely fill that #2 slot alongside Nick Lidstrom. But who would Mike Babcock pair up alongside Niklas Kronwall? I suppose if Derek Meech or Jonathan Ericsson impress in training camp they might be able to chip in while a man short. Brian Rafalski played the fewest minutes on the PK so perhaps he can step up and handle another 45 seconds or so per game. But you can quickly see the team doesn’t have any obvious replacements to help out on the penalty kill. So the big question is whether the Red Wings brass thinks they can handle the loss of Chelios [potentially] and Lilja.

If not then Brett Lebda might be the guy who is traded. That would leave Detroit with five solid d-man PK’ers and Derek Meech or Jonathan Ericsson could likely step in and eat up Lebda’s ES icetime. Here is how the cap hit works.

That provides Detroit with more than enough cap space to make moves back and forth as far as calling up Griffins when nececessary. The top four on the PK would be pretty solid:

Lidstrom - Stuart
Kronwall - Lilja

Then if one of the younger players does well on the third PK unit you can always trade Lilja late in the season prior to the trade deadline. Ken Holland did call him an insurance policy but the question is whether that claim gets put in prior to training camp or later in the season when the team feels very comfortable about their PK situation along the blueline.

So I’m leaning towards:

1. Bidding Chris Chelios a fond farewell. He could always pull a Niedermayer and sit out part of the season until he can be fit back on the roster but it’s kind of a tacky move considering everyone knows he wants to play. But he didn’t play a minute during the Stanley Cup finals and that gives you a good indication of where Mike Babcock sees his contributions being most beneficial to the team: off the ice.

2. Saying sayonara to Kirk Maltby. I don’t think there’s any way Detroit can get anything for him in a trade. The first step is to try going that route but I don’t think anyone is looking to add him to their team right now. The more likely option is to waive him and send him down to Grand Rapids. It’s harsh and it’s the one move that would reflect really badly on the Red Wings seeing as they just signed the guy to a new contract.

The odds of Detroit making this move are slim to none but this is the space where I get to offer up my hare-brained ideas and with the cap situation my opinion is that Detroit has guys who can fill his spot: Darren McCarty and Mikael Samuelsson in particular. This move would also allow the team to call up Ville Leino during the season assuming the Fin is ready to play at the NHL level.

3. Trading either Brett Ledba or Andreas Lilja. Both players have value and could bring a draft pick back in return. Given Detroit’s lack of proven PK’ers I’d lean towards trading Lebda first. You might get a 5th or 6th round pick in return.

Then if the younger players on the roster prove to be capable PK’ers you can trade Lilja during the season. This would also be a possibility if Ville Leino proves he’s ready for regular duty in the NHL, as you’d need to clear Lilja’s salary to fit Leino under the cap. If not you can keep Lilja until you are close to the trade deadine. Pittsburgh traded for Hal Gill prior to last year’s playoffs and there would be a similar market for Lilja were he to be put on the market prior to the trade deadline. Pittsburgh gave up a 2nd and a 5th round pick for Gill.

I doubt anyone would offer up that kind of bounty for Lilja right now; but when the playoffs are approaching and a team really needs to shore up their PK then Lilja could provide similar return for the Red Wings.

Andreas Lilja Brett Lebda Chris Chelios Darren McCarty Kirk Maltby Red Wings Valtteri Filppula ville leino

July 31st, 2008
Categories: Red Wings . Author: Dave

1 Comment(s)

Comments RSS TrackBack Identifier URI

Leave a comment

Name (required)

Mail (will not be published) (required)

Website

Anti-spam word: (Required)*
To prove you're a person (not a spam script), type the security word shown in the picture.