Rating the Prospects
There are a couple challenges when it comes to rating prospects. The two biggest challenges are trying to determine what a player’s true ceiling is and making a determination of how close a player is to competing for a spot in Detroit’s lineup. There appear to be two players who have a decent shot at cracking the Red Wings lineup.
Let me start off by showing the methodology I will use to rate each prospects. I prefer to have some way to quantify my views on where a prospect fits in the pecking order. There are three basic ways I rate a prospect.
First, I look at each player’s potential. The best way to gauge this is via Red Wings Central - the bible for prospect information. The ratings work like so:
| Rating | Forward | Defender | Goaltender |
|
1 |
4th line forward, no ST | 3rd pairing d-man, no ST | Career minor-leaguer |
|
2 |
3rd-4th line, 1 ST | 3rd pairing, 1 ST | AHL’er, some callups |
|
3 |
2nd-3rd line, 1 ST | 2nd pairing, 1 ST | Backup netminder |
|
4 |
2nd line, 1-2 ST | 2nd pairing, 1-2 ST | Potential #1 |
|
5 |
1st-2nd line, 1-2 ST | 1st-2nd pairing, 1-2 ST | Long-term #1 |
ST = specialty teams
Next I take a look at the level where the prospect is currently competing. The higher the level the better idea we have of his potential and the closer he is to making the team. Here is how I rate this part of the prospect’s development:
| Rating | Level of Hockey |
|
1 |
Starting career at college/CHL level or play has stagnated there |
|
2 |
Maxing out college/CHL or struggling at AHL/SEL level |
|
3 |
Starting out at AHL/SEL or maintaining level of play there |
|
4 |
Successful at AHL/SEL, etc |
|
5 |
High level performer in AHL/SEL, etc |
Finally, the last rating I use is development. This gets some mention in the level of play section but it focuses more directly on this prospect’s development.
| Rating | Status |
|
1 |
New prospect, no improvement from draft year, or play has leveled off |
|
2 |
Improved performance at current level [college, AHL, CHL, SEL, etc] |
|
3 |
Moved up a level [SEL, AHL, etc] |
|
4 |
Performing at highest level, ready for callups |
|
5 |
Maxed out development |
With that out of the way here is how I rate the prospects. This is a snapshot based on their past season, so a player like Jakub Kindl doesn’t fare very well. I break out the groups based on four categories: imminent NHL’ers, ready for call-ups, 1-3 years away, and 3-6 years away.
| Name | 2007-08 team | Position | Potential | Level | Development | Rating |
|
Jonathan Ericsson |
Grand Rapids | D | 5 | 4 | 5 | 14 |
|
Darren Helm |
Grand Rapids/Detroit | C | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
The organization has indicated that Ericsson is ready to play at the NHL level. Helm showed he could fit in quite capably on the fourth line. If his true long-term potential was as a scoring line forward he’d be guaranteed a return trip to Grand Rapids. However his potential has always been pegged as a checking line forward. With a lower ceiling I think he has an outside shot at making Detroit’s roster.
| Name | 2007-08 team | Position | Potential | Level | Development | Rating |
|
Jimmy Howard |
Grand Rapids | G | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
Howard was an AHL All-Star last season, but he didn’t have the consistent play the Red Wings want to see out of him. He should be one of the top netminders in the AHL this season.
| Name | 2007-08 team/league | Position | Potential | Level | Development | Rating |
|
Dick Axelsson |
SEL | W | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
|
Cory Emmerton |
OHL | C | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
|
Jan Mursak |
OHL | W | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
|
Dan Larsson |
SEL | G | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
|
Justin Abdelkader |
NCAA | W | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
|
Joakim Andersson |
Swe-2 | C | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
|
Logan Pyett |
WHL | D | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
|
Jakub Kindl |
Grand Rapids | D | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
|
Evan McGrath |
Grand Rapids | C | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 |
|
Brendan Smith |
NCAA | D | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
|
Mattias Ritola |
Grand Rapids | W | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
Jakub Kindl is obviously the highest rated prospect amongst this group but his rough first season in the A lowers his score and negatively impacts his overall score.
| Name | 2007-08 team/league | Position | Potential | Level | Development | Rating |
|
Sergei Kolosov |
RSA | D | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
|
Zach Torquato |
OHL | C | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
|
Randall Gelech |
Grand Rapids | W | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
|
Ryan Oulahen |
Grand Rapids | C | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
|
Jamie Tardiff |
Grand Rapids | W | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
|
Johan Ryno |
SEL | W | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
|
Nils Backstrom |
NCAA | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
|
Randy Cameron |
QMJHL | C | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
|
Bryan Rufenach |
NCAA | D | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
|
Nick Oslund |
NCAA | W | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
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