Now seems like a good time to update the blog
The Red Wings will possibly struggle to make the playoffs for the first time in a very long time and the wheels appear to be coming off the machine once known as Michigan football. While both situations are dire I think there are both short-term and long-term problems for both programs.
My cousin texted me before the start to the season to get my vibe on the upcoming football season. I wrote back that my conservative guess was 6-6. When the team started off 4-0 I was quite impressed and started thinking about the possibility of a 7 or 8 win season. Of course the team has lost 4 straight games to BCS competition, getting blown out in spectacular fashion in their last two games.
One problem that will be fixed fairly quickly will be Tate Forcier becoming a sophomore. If you take a look at Jimmy Clausen’s freshman stats you can see just how bad true-freshman quarterbacks really are.
56.3% completion
5.12 yards per attempt
7 TDs
6 INTs
35 sacks
103.85 rating
Here are Tate Forcier’s projected stats:
55.4% completion
7.38 yards per attempt
12 TDs
7 INTs
24 sacks
127.63 rating
As legendary basketball coach Dean Smith once commented ‘the best thing about freshmen is they become sophomores.’ If you look at Oregon’s offense - which is run by a junior JuCo transfer at QB - you have an idea of just how explosive this offense should be once it is run by someone other than a walk-on or a true freshman quarterback.
Oregon’s coach learned the zone read from Rodriguez when he was coaching at Clemson and used it to devastating effect on one of the best defenses in college football last night. The offense should continue to improve as it has this season, moving from being a bottom-feeder in the Big Ten in 2008 to the tops of the ranks within the conference this year. The future is bright for the offense going forward once Tate Forcier develops to the point where he and Denard Robinson aren’t turnover machines.
The long-term problem for Michigan football, of course, is the defense. It has been very wonky against dual-threat quarterbacks as far back as when Jim Hermann’s defense in 1998 struggled to contain Donovan McNabb and Jarious Jackson. The trend continued against Oregon and App State when Ron English was the DC and has continued unabated under Scott Shafer and now Greg Robinson. I don’t know if Michigan can really go with a fourth defensive coordinator in as many seasons but until the defense improves the team will not compete for conference and BCS titles.
For the Red Wings the short-term problem is clearly a lack of depth at forward. On top of losing Jiri Hudler and Marian Hossa this summer, Detroit is now without the services of Johan Franzen or Valtteri Filppula. That’s nearly 50% of your top three lines last season. I was a bit skeptical when the Red Wings were talking about improving their defense this season but were planning on doing so by having Todd Bertuzzi replace Hossa.
Like the Michigan football team, the Red Wings should be able to restock their depth at forward after this season when they will have a lot of space available beneath the salary cap. There are also some young forwards in the minors who could crack the depleted forward ranks.
The long-term problem, though, is that they really don’t have a high-end netminder. Both Chris Osgood and Jimmy Howard have struggled this season and both goaltenders in the minors are probably at least two seasons away from being ready for NHL action. That likely means it’s going to take more efforts like the team had last night when they held the Calgary Flames to 20 shots on goal en route to a 3-1 victory.
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