Gorilla Crouch

There are a couple challenges when it comes to rating prospects. The two biggest challenges are trying to determine what a player’s true ceiling is and making a determination of how close a player is to competing for a spot in Detroit’s lineup. There appear to be two players who have a decent shot at cracking the Red Wings lineup.

Let me start off by showing the methodology I will use to rate each prospects. I prefer to have some way to quantify my views on where a prospect fits in the pecking order. There are three basic ways I rate a prospect.

First, I look at each player’s potential. The best way to gauge this is via Red Wings Central - the bible for prospect information. The ratings work like so:

Potential

Rating	Forward	Defender	Goaltender
1	4th line forward, no ST	3rd pairing d-man, no ST	Career minor-leaguer
2	3rd-4th line, 1 ST	3rd pairing, 1 ST	AHL’er, some callups
3	2nd-3rd line, 1 ST	2nd pairing, 1 ST	Backup netminder
4	2nd line, 1-2 ST	2nd pairing, 1-2 ST	Potential #1
5	1st-2nd line, 1-2 ST	1st-2nd pairing, 1-2 ST	Long-term #1

ST = specialty teams

Next I take a look at the level where the prospect is currently competing. The higher the level the better idea we have of his potential and the closer he is to making the team. Here is how I rate this part of the prospect’s development:

Level of Play

Rating	Level of Hockey
1	Starting career at college/CHL level or play has stagnated there
2	Maxing out college/CHL or struggling at AHL/SEL level
3	Starting out at AHL/SEL or maintaining level of play there
4	Successful at AHL/SEL, etc
5	High level performer in AHL/SEL, etc

Finally, the last rating I use is development. This gets some mention in the level of play section but it focuses more directly on this prospect’s development.

Development

Rating	Status
1	New prospect, no improvement from draft year, or play has leveled off
2	Improved performance at current level [college, AHL, CHL, SEL, etc]
3	Moved up a level [SEL, AHL, etc]
4	Performing at highest level, ready for callups
5	Maxed out development

With that out of the way here is how I rate the prospects. This is a snapshot based on their past season, so a player like Jakub Kindl doesn’t fare very well. I break out the groups based on four categories: imminent NHL’ers, ready for call-ups, 1-3 years away, and 3-6 years away.

Imminent NHL’ers

Name	2007-08 team	Position	Potential	Level	Development	Rating
Jonathan Ericsson	Grand Rapids	D	5	4	5	14
Darren Helm	Grand Rapids/Detroit	C	2	4	4	10

The organization has indicated that Ericsson is ready to play at the NHL level. Helm showed he could fit in quite capably on the fourth line. If his true long-term potential was as a scoring line forward he’d be guaranteed a return trip to Grand Rapids. However his potential has always been pegged as a checking line forward. With a lower ceiling I think he has an outside shot at making Detroit’s roster.

Ready for Callups

Name	2007-08 team	Position	Potential	Level	Development	Rating
Jimmy Howard	Grand Rapids	G	4	3	2	9

Howard was an AHL All-Star last season, but he didn’t have the consistent play the Red Wings want to see out of him. He should be one of the top netminders in the AHL this season.

1-3 Years Away

Name	2007-08 team/league	Position	Potential	Level	Development	Rating
Dick Axelsson	SEL	W	4	3	3	10
Cory Emmerton	OHL	C	4	3	3	10
Jan Mursak	OHL	W	4	3	3	10
Dan Larsson	SEL	G	4	3	3	10
Justin Abdelkader	NCAA	W	3	3	3	9
Joakim Andersson	Swe-2	C	3	3	3	9
Logan Pyett	WHL	D	3	3	3	9
Jakub Kindl	Grand Rapids	D	5	2	1	8
Evan McGrath	Grand Rapids	C	3	3	2	8
Brendan Smith	NCAA	D	5	1	1	7
Mattias Ritola	Grand Rapids	W	3	3	1	7

Jakub Kindl is obviously the highest rated prospect amongst this group but his rough first season in the A lowers his score and negatively impacts his overall score.

3-6 Years Away

Name	2007-08 team/league	Position	Potential	Level	Development	Rating
Sergei Kolosov	RSA	D	2	3	3	6
Zach Torquato	OHL	C	3	1	2	6
Randall Gelech	Grand Rapids	W	2	3	1	6
Ryan Oulahen	Grand Rapids	C	2	3	1	6
Jamie Tardiff	Grand Rapids	W	1	3	1	5
Johan Ryno	SEL	W	2	2	1	5
Nils Backstrom	NCAA	D	1	1	2	4
Randy Cameron	QMJHL	C	2	1	1	4
Bryan Rufenach	NCAA	D	2	1	1	4
Nick Oslund	NCAA	W	1	1	1	3

Brendan Smith Bryan Rufenach Cory Emmerton daniel larsson Darren Helm dick axelsson evan mcgrath Jakub Kindl jamie tardiff Jan Mursak Jimmy Howard joakim andersson Johan Ryno Jonathan Ericsson Justin Abdelkader Logan Pyett Mattias Ritola Nick Oslund nils backstrom Randall Gelech Randy Cameron Red Wings sergei kolosov

August 11th, 2008
Categories: Red Wings . Author: Dave . Comments: No Comments

Red Wings Central’s latest article updates the status of ten players who need to be either signed or will be lost as free agents:

The Red Wings have until June 1 to make decisions on 10 prospects who, if not signed, are eligible to either re-enter the draft or become free agents.

Hopefully Ryno isn’t too attached to that jersey number
Photo: EuroHockey.net

The big decision will be on whether to sign Johan Ryno, although all signs indicate Detroit would like to renew the big 6′5″ forward’s contract. Jim Nill, a vice president who is in charge of scouting, has suggested that the team will also sign Igor Grigorenko and will finally bring him over to play in North America. Here are some of the other players RWC thinks are not likely to earn a new contract:

Of the remaining prospects, defenseman Jeff May has the best shot at signing, but might end up a victim of a numbers game. Blueliners Bretton Stamler and Juho Mielonen and forwards Christofer Lofberg, Andreas Sundin, Stefan Blom, Tomas Kollar and Mikael Johansson will likely move on.

The season for at least one player in the minors has come to an end. Jan Mursak, who had a brilliant rookie campaign in Saginaw, had a rough playoff series and the the Spirit was eliminated in the first round of the playoffs.

Igor Grigorenko Johan Ryno Red Wings

April 3rd, 2007
Categories: Red Wings . Author: Dave . Comments: No Comments

Due to the new rules changes in the NHL collective bargaining agreement the Red Wings have modified their approach to developing talent overseas. Red Wings Central provides the details in this article:

The new collective bargaining agreement forces NHL teams to sign European prospects within two years of being drafted, meaning [forward Johan] Ryno, a fifth-round pick (137th overall) in 2005, must be inked by June 1. Previously, the Red Wings would have held Ryno’s rights indefinitely.
…
But don’t expect him in the NHL next season — he’s not ready for that — and don’t even book him a spot in the American Hockey League.

If signed, the Red Wings will bring Ryno to camp in the fall, but will consider sending him back to Sweden to continue his development.

So if he signs with Detroit he will be brought into training camp next year to see how he looks. At that point Detriot will make a decision to play him in the minors in North America or send him back to Sweden for further development. But he would be signed to an NHL contract and the clock starts ticking for him to become a restricted free agent in three years.

Red Wings Central remarks that Pavel Datsyuk and Hank Zetterberg didn’t come over to North America until they were 23 and 22 years old respectively, so it is a stretch to think Ryno will make the team anytime soon. But that probably won’t stop Detroit from signing him in order to keep him in the system in the hopes that he will develop into a legitimate NHL talent.

Johan Ryno Red Wings

March 26th, 2007
Categories: Red Wings . Author: Dave . Comments: No Comments

Much was made of a comment from Wings general manager Ken Holland in this article from the Detroit Free Press:

“During the summer, we’re going to have to decide whether we’re going to continue to be a Cup contender, or do we want to move some kids into the lineup, maybe take a half-step back in order to take two steps ahead in the future.”

The big question is which kids are Ken Holland talking about? The team already raided Grand Rapids of their top 3 forwards. Perhaps he is talking about Jakub Kindl and Jonathan Ericsson, who are probably the top two prospects on defense for the Red Wings. The rumor is that Ericsson nearly made the team out of training camp. The Wings will also hope to get Igor Grigorenko signed and in training camp next season.

Red Wings Central caught up with Hakan Andersson, who is the Red Wings director of European scouting. Andersson was bullish on one of the forward prospects the Red Wings have stashed overseas: Johan Ryno.

“I project him as a top two line player,” Andersson said. “He’s a 6-foot-5 guy with very good hands and hockey sense. He’s got real upside. He’s the guy who has the biggest chance out of Europe to be an impact player in Detroit.”

It would seem like Ryno would need more time against higher level competition, but given Andersson’s track record and Detroit’s need for big, skilled forwards he will likely be signed by the Wings and possibly even be given a shot in training camp to earn a spot on the team.

The Red Wings Central message board also has a transcript of a very good interview with Grigorenko.

Things are also looking pretty good here in North America. Darren Helm is ranked as the #7 prospect in the WHL according to this Hockey’s Future article from Glen Erickson. Here is what he has to say about the Red Wings prospect:

Acquired by the Red Wings in the fifth round, 132nd overall at the 2005 NHL Entry Draft, Darren Helm has established himself this season as top WHL prospect with the Medicine Hat Tigers. The native of St. Andrews, Manitoba has scored 20 goals and 33 assists in 47 games.

Helm has put on some weight and grown to become a feared offensive threat in the WHL. His explosive first stride and acceleration make him a handful for even the top defensemen in the league. He played in the ADT Canada/Russia Challenge and was a valuable energy player for Team Canada at the WJC in Sweden.

Offensive defenseman Logan Pyett garnered notice in the “other notables” section.

Darren Helm Igor Grigorenko Johan Ryno Logan Pyett NHL Prospects Red Wings

February 5th, 2007
Categories: Red Wings . Author: Dave . Comments: 2 Comments

I hope Red Wings general manager Ken Holland watched last night’s game. Because Columbus - a team not likely at this point in the season to make the playoffs - did exactly what San Jose has done to Detroit all season. They used their size to shut down the Red Wing offense, while the Wings were also unable to do much on defense against the Blue Jackets other than use their sticks. The end result was a lot of trips to the penalty box, two Columbus power play goals, and a loss that wasn’t as close as the score indicated.

Columbus is a bit of a poor-man’s San Jose. Both teams feature a lot of big forwads, with San Jose’s being a little older and more talented.

Blue Jackets
Zherdev - 6′2″, 22 years old, bad defensive player
Nash - 6′4″, 22 years old, hasn’t lived up to abilities yet but still young
Chimera - 6′2″, 27 years old
Feds - 6′1″
Svitov - 6′3″, 21 years old
Fritsche - 6′1″, 21 years old

Vyborny is the mite (5′10″) amongst the top 6 forwards, but also is on pace to score the most points on the team. Compare that lineup with San Jose’s:

Thornton - 6′4″, Hart trophy winner
Cheecho - 6′1″, Richard trophy winner
Michalek - 6′2″, 22 years old, solid all-around player
Marleau - 6′2″, 27 years old
Clowe - 6′2″, 24 years old
Mark Bell - 6′4″, 26 years old, nasty

The concern if you are a Red Wings fan is the team hasn’t shown an ability to adapt against teams that have big forwards. Detroit’s lone goal last night came when one of the team’s few big forwards who actually uses his size (Johan Franzen, 6′2″) went to the front of the net when Niklas Kronwall put a shot on net from near the blue line. Franzen quickly put the rebound past Fredrik Norrena to pull Detroit to within one goal of Columbus. Tomas Holmstrom is Detroit’s only other forward who really mixes it up night in and night out in front of the opponent’s net.

Robert Lang and Mikael Samuelsson both have decent size but are not physical players by any stretch of the imagination. Lang is a solid offensive threat and produces in the playoffs so he has value in the offensive zone. Samuelsson is a solid two-way player but his offensive production has nosedived since he was taken off the Datsyuk and Zetterberg line. So the one thing missing is a big, physical forward who can hit and also add some offensive firepower. Right now he would probably fit in on the second line, playing alongside Lang and Cleary.

Detroit does have some forwards with size in the minor league system and overseas. Johan Ryno is exactly the type of player Detroit needs right now. But the 20 year old 6′5″ forward is still a couple years from playing in Detroit. Nick Oslund, who is 19 and stands 6′3″, will hopefully develop into a player similar to Mark Bell, a guy who is really physical and loves to hit but doesn’t provide much in the way of offense. Oslund is probably 5 years away from competing for a spot in Detroit.

So the Wings need to add some size amongst their forwards if they want to have a chance to compete against teams like San Jose. They should get one big forward back when Tomas Kopecky recovers from a broken collarbone. The 6′3″ winger is the only big forward other than Franzen and Holmstrom that uses his size effectively. But Kopecky hasn’t proven to be a scoring threat, so adding a big, physical forward who is capable of adding some offense is the team’s biggest need as we approach the trade deadline.

Columbus Blue Jackets Johan Franzen Johan Ryno Mikael Samuelsson Nick Oslund Red Wings Robert Lang Tomas Holmstrom Tomas Kopecky

January 20th, 2007
Categories: Red Wings . Author: Dave . Comments: No Comments